Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 54.6 (-4.4), down from July's 55.2. (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). And things just remain ugly.
And the forecasts based mostly or solely on polls, Daily Kos and 538, look the worse.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
A little housekeeping: Chris Bowers has moved his forecasts from Open Left to Daily Kos, so they are now so shown. Also, we are now using the actual race-by-race forecasts from Daily Kos and 538, and converting them into categories. 35-65% is a T, and becomes 0.5; and 11-34% or 66-89% is a Lean, and becomes .2 or .8 as appropriate. But I personally think their methodologies significantly underestimates the chances of someone behind 4-6 points in a poll to win.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.
Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 55.2 (-3.8), basically even with June's 55.3 (-3.7), but that now includes a 53.1 from 538, added to the forecast by popular demand. (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). We have not added WV to the chart yet, but we will next time and it shouldn't change things much.
If you start at WI and go all the way down to DE, that's 17 potential seats up for grabs. (Fine, AR is not really up for grabs. Tell Cook that!). As always, let us know how you see it.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.
Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 55.3 (-3.7), down slightly from 55.5 (-3.5), but all of that is due to the addition of CrystalBall to the chart. They're at 54.1, and without them the average would have stayed at 55.5 (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).
There are a lot of cross-currents hidden in the overall stability of the final number. WA has made a major move towards Tossup with Rossi's entrance into the race, and CT has been all over the place the last two weeks. On the other hand a number of races have started to show small movement towards the Dem side, especially in NV, and this is only starting to get reflected in the numbers.
It's also worth looking at the races where the forecasters differ by more than one ranking, to see where future movements might come from:
WI: D/T - The one T is based on one Rasmussen poll. Enough said. CA: D/DL/T - The first polls after the primary next week will tell us where this race really stands. CT: D/DL/T - The one T needs to move to DL WA: D/DL/T - The Ds will need to move to DL PA: D/T - If DocJess says this race is in the bag for Sestak, I'm inclined to believe her. KY: T/RL/R - The one R is caused by one outlying Rasmussen poll. It will move to RL. FL: T/RL/R - OpenLeft assumes Crist will caucus with the GOP, so calls the seat a Solid R. Given Crist's move to the left, that's a hard assumption to justify. NH: T/RL/R - Hodes hasn't been within less than 7 points in any poll since last summer. Those Ts are increasingly shaky. IN: T/RL/R - It's an RL/R race right now. AR: T/RL/R - On hold until we see who the Dem candidate is NC: T/RL/R - The polls have been all over the place, and there's no Dem candidate yet. We may not really know where this race stands until September or so.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.
Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 55.5 (-3.5), no change from 55.5 (-3.5) (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).
The chart at left does show that things seem to have stabilized for the first time in over a year. But there are also some states that need updating by a few of our forecasts: CA should be a little less blue, and NH should be a little more red. On the other hand, NC and FL should both probably be pink, not red at this point. And when we get first poll numbers after the primaries tomorrow, we may see shifts in PA, KY and AR.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.
Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 55.5 (-3.5), down from 58.1 (-1.9) (Pre-Scott Brown) (See the latest House Forecast here).
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).
Is there any good news here? The only thing we can point to is that the bleeding seems to have stopped, for now. Four of our five subjective forecasts have not made a significant change in their forecasts since mid/late February.
But if you assume Gillibrand, Murray, Feingold and Boxer are safe, that only gets you to 51 seats. Specter or Sestak gets you to 52, Bennet to 53. Then you've got 5 open seats: IL, OH, MO, NH, KY. If the GOP wave stays strong, we could easily end up with only 51 seats, and possibly even less. On the other hand, if good economic news turns things around, 57-59 seats is still possible.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.
Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 58.1 (-1.9), down from 59.3 (-0.7) (See the latest House Forecast here).
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).
Also, we are not including MA in the numbers and charts. If we lose on Tuesday, we'll adjust the baseline.
A lot of the damage came from ND, but NV and AR aren't looking pretty either. Only good news came from CT, with Dodd's retirement. Will it take more retirements to improve the Democrat's chances in November?
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.
Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 59.3 (-0.7), down from 61.3 (+1.3) (See the latest House Forecast here).
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).
It won't surprise any readers here to see the forecast down significantly from our last update in August. It's been a slow and steady decline, as the bad polling news has continued to drip out all fall. The only question is will the forecast level off, as the individual rankings catch up to the latest polls? Or will the polls keep getting worse?
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.
Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 61.3 (+1.3), down from 61.4 (+1.4) (See the latest House Forecast here).
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).
Lots of changes since our last forecast on July 27, almost all in the GOP direction. While the overall forecast has gone down just a bit from 61.4 to 61.3, it would have gone down even more except that we replaced Crystal Ball (61.0) with a new forecast from Senate Guru (62.0). Crystal Ball has not updated since February, and if a week is a lifetime in politics, well, we just had to replace the stale rankings.
Elsewhere, Cook moved CA to DL, based on recent polls showing Sen. Barbara Boxer having a potentially close race against Carly Fiorina. SSP moved CT to T, leaving DCW as the lone ranking still showing this as DL. SSP also moved IL to DL. OpenLeft (which we convert from polling numbers to rankings), moved CA, IL and PA from D to DL, and CA and LA to R. CQ has the lone change in the Blue direction, belatedly moving NY (Gillibrand) from DL to D. And none of the rankings reflect the bad news in the latest poll for Harry Reid, which shows him trailing two minor candidates in potential matchups.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.
Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 61.4 (+1.4), down from 61.7 (+1.7) (See the latest House Forecast here).
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).
Lots of changes since our last forecast on May 7. While the overall forecast has gone down a bit from 61.7 to 61.4, that masks quite a bit of movement in both directions in the rankings. Harry Reid is still waiting for a serious contender in Nevada, and Ohio has also moved a tad more Democratic based on some recent polls.
But there's been more movement towards the GOP, starting with Florida, where Charlie Crist has turned what was a Tossup into an almost safe seat for the GOP. There was also movement towards the GOP in IL and CT.
There are also some anomalies in the data. CrystalBall has not updated since February, and their ratings in CO (T), PA (RL), CT (D) and FL (T) are all quite out of date. If they don't update their rankings, we'll remove or replace them in our next Forecast (although the overall numbers might just cancel out anyway). Also, if Mike Castle decides to run for Senate in Delaware, there will be major movement in the red direction. Finally, a recent Illinois poll of Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs Mark Kirk (R) is needed to figure out if this is a safe Democratic seat, a Tossup, or somewhere in between. (The last poll, from April, had it at 35%-35%.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.
Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 61.7 (+1.7), up from 61.5 (+2.5)
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast, and assume, of course, that Franken is seated in Minnesota).
Lots of changes since our first forecast on Mar 23. We've added two new forecasts, OpenLeft and CQ. And, of course, lots of ratings changes. Specter's party switch is reflected by the move of his seat from mostly RL to mostly DL (Ridge's withdrawal is not reflected in any of the ratings yet), and that our current base is now 60 seats. (Again, assuming Franken).
But the upgrade of Specter's seat was offset somewhat by Chris Dodd's seat (CT) moving into DL range, and that bright R under OpenLeft in DE is not a good sign - expect other forecasts to quickly move that seat into the DL/T range.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.
Welcome to the first edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
Senate Forecast: 61.5 (+2.5)
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast, and assume, of course, that Franken is seated in Minnesota)
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.
We'll be making some changes in the list of forecasts used compared to our 2008 forecasts. Most importantly, DocJess will be providing DCW's own forecasts - her first forecast was issued yesterday. Also, some of our key forecasters from last cycle, especially CQ and OpenLeft, have not issued their first forecasts yet. We will add them when are available.
Let us know if you have any favorite Senate forecasts out there you think we should include.
We will be updating the forecast monthly through the summer of 2010, but will update more quickly if events warrant.
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). We have not added WV to the chart yet, but we will next time and it shouldn't change things much. 
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 
