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Senate Forecast

2014 Senate Ratings - Rothenberg

by: Matt

Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 22:00:51 PM EDT

As a followup and preview to Jess' Sunday with the Senators, here's the latest Senate ratings from the Rothenberg report. We'll get a full DCW Senator outlook up sometime in the spring.

Total Seats in Play

Democrat: 21 Republican: 14

Pure Toss-up

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
SD II D   Johnson  

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat

Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
AR II D   Pryor  
LA II D   Landrieu  

Lean Democrat

Democrat: 4 Republican: 0
AK II D   Begich  
IA II D Open Harkin  
MT II D   Baucus  
NC II D   Hagan  

Democrat Favored

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
NH II D   Shaheen  

Currently Safe Democrat

Democrat: 12 Republican: 0
CO II D   M. Udall  
DE II D   Coons  
HI III D   Schatz  
IL II D   Durbin  
MA II D Open Cowan Special  
MI II D Open Levin  
MN II D   Franken  
NJ II D Open Lautenberg  
NM II D   T. Udall  
OR II D   Merkley  
RI II D   Reed  
VA II D   Warner  

Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
WV II D Open Rockefeller  

Lean Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 0

Republican Favored

Democrat: 0 Republican: 2
KY II R   McConnell  
ME II R   Collins  

Currently Safe Republican

Democrat: 0 Republican: 12
AL II R   Sessions  
GA II R Open Chambliss  
ID II R   Risch  
KS II R   Roberts  
MS II R   Cochran  
NE II R Open Johanns  
OK II R   Inhofe  
SC II R   Graham  
SC III R   Scott  
TN II R   Alexander  
TX II R   Cornyn  
WY II R   Enzi  

Senate Outlook

Democrats have a 55-45 majority. Republicans need to gain 6 seats for a majority. At this early stage, GOP gains seem to be inevitable but the size is still in doubt.

 

Discuss :: (1 Comments)

2012 DCW Senate Forecast

by: Matt

Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 23:56:11 PM EDT

Welcome to the latest (and last?) edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

The good news continues, as the forecast moved from 51.7 to 52.0, a loss of 1.0 seats from the current 53. (But if you assume King caucus's with the Dems, we're at 52.5). There was good movement in MO, CT and IN.  In terms of range, you can see from the chart that Democrats have 41 Safe Seats, have a straightforward path, HI->OH, to 47, clear favorites now to 49 (CT, MA), easily winnable seats to 53, and have a potential highpoint of 57 seats.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 

Speaking of Independents, Angus King's strong run in Maine is causing havoc in the algorithms. Although many assume that King will caucus with the Democrats, it is no sure thing, and everybody classifies the race in a different way. For the purposed of these rankings, we're marking the race as a pure Tossup for everyone. If he wins, and until he declares what he will do, the seat's status will remain unknown, so keeping it as T is the safest thing to do.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.


Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall, Daily Kos Elections, 538, DCW

Discuss :: (4 Comments)

2012 DCW Senate Forecast

by: Matt

Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 23:54:54 PM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

A small backslide this week, as the forecast moved from 51.8 to 51.7, a loss of 1.3 seats from the current 53. The biggest mover was PA, which moved to DL in 3, for a total of 4, forecasts. In terms of range, you can see from the chart that Democrats have 41 Safe Seats, have an easy path, HI->MO, to 47, and have a potential highpoint of 57 seats.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 

Speaking of Independents, Angus King's strong run in Maine is causing havoc in the algorithms. Although many assume that King will caucus with the Democrats, it is no sure thing, and everybody classifies the race in a different way. For the purposed of these rankings, we're marking the race as a pure Tossup for everyone. If he wins, and until he declares what he will do, the seat's status will remain unknown, so keeping it as T is the safest thing to do.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.


Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall, Daily Kos Elections, 538, DCW

Discuss :: (2 Comments)

2012 DCW Senate Forecast

by: Matt

Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 22:44:37 PM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

The trend remains positive, but just a small gain this week, as the forecast moved from 51.6 to 51.8, a loss of 1.2 seats from the current 53. In terms of range, you can see from the chart that Democrats have 41 Safe Seats, have an easy path, HI->MO, to 47, and have a potential highpoint of 57 seats.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 

Speaking of Independents, Angus King's strong run in Maine is causing havoc in the algorithms. Although many assume that King will caucus with the Democrats, it is no sure thing, and everybody classifies the race in a different way. For the purposed of these rankings, we're marking the race as a pure Tossup for everyone. If he wins, and until he declares what he will do, the seat's status will remain unknown, so keeping it as T is the safest thing to do.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.


Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall, Daily Kos Elections, 538, DCW

Discuss :: (4 Comments)

2012 DCW Senate Forecast

by: Matt

Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 21:41:35 PM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

The blue trend continued again, as the forecast moved from 51.1 to 51.6, a loss of 1.4 seats from the current 53.. There was positive movement in AZ, FL, HI, IN, MI, MO, NM, NV, OH, VA and WI, but negative movement in CT and PA.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 

Speaking of Independents, Angus King's strong run in Maine is causing havoc in the algorithms. Although many assume that King will caucus with the Democrats, it is no sure thing, and everybody classifies the race in a different way. For the purposed of these rankings, we're marking the race as a pure Tossup for everyone. If he wins, and until he declares what he will do, the seat's status will remain unknown, so keeping it as T is the safest thing to do.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.


Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall, Daily Kos Elections, 538, DCW

Discuss :: (1 Comments)

2012 DCW Senate Forecast:

by: Matt

Sat Sep 29, 2012 at 22:45:19 PM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

The blue trend continued in the last week, as the forecast moved (barely) above 51 (from 50.6) for the first time this cycle. The big changes this week included FL and OH moving to DL in Rothenberg, MO moving to DL in Roll Call and Crystal Ball, VA moving to DL in Crystal Ball, IN moving to Tossup in Rothenberg, Crystal Ball, DKElections and RollCall, and ND, NV and WI all moving to T in Crystal Ball. There was some movement the other way in CT and MT, but the overall trend remained good.

The forecast  for the Democrats is 51.0 seats, a loss of 2.0 seats from their current 53. The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 

Speaking of Independents, Angus King's strong run in Maine is causing havoc in the algorithms. Although many assume that King will caucus with the Democrats, it is no sure thing, and everybody classifies the race in a different way. For the purposed of these rankings, we're marking the race as a pure Tossup for everyone. If he wins, and until he declares what he will do, the seat's status will remain unknown, so keeping it as T is the safest thing to do.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.


Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall, Daily Kos Elections, 538

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

2012 DCW Senate Forecast:

by: Matt

Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 15:15:43 PM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

It's been a while since we last posted in January, and things have improved for the Democrats a bit since then. First in Maine, where Snowe's retirement has turned a solid R into a Tossup. (Really a strong I, but more on that in a bit). ND has moved from a R to a T/RL, with Heidi Heitkamp running much stronger then expected. NM and MO have also shifted from T to DL.

The forecast  for the Democrats is 50.3 seats, a loss of 2.7 seats from their current 53. The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 

Speaking of Independents, Angus King's strong run in Maine is causing havoc in the algorithms. Although many assume that King will caucus with the Democrats, it is no sure thing, and everybody classifies the race in a different way. For the purposed of these rankings, we're marking the race as a pure Tossup for everyone. If he wins, and until he declares what he will do, the seat's status will remain unknown, so keeping it as T is the safest thing to do.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall

Discuss :: (2 Comments)

2012 DCW Senate Forecast:

by: Matt

Mon Jan 02, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM EST

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

It's been a while since we last posted in May, but things stayed relatively stable until December, when somewhat improved prospects in MA, NV, ND and WV were overshadowed by Ben Nelson's retirement in NE.

The forecast  for the Democrats is 48.7 seats, a loss of 4.3 seats from their current 53. The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.

Note: This post was updated on 1/8 to include DCW rankings, changing the forecast to 48.9.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall

Discuss :: (15 Comments)

2012 DCW Senate Forecast:

by: Matt

Tue May 31, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM EDT

Welcome to the first edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

The initial forecast is for the Democrats is for a final tally of 48.9 seats, a loss of 4.1 seats from their current 53. The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).

But with signs of improved Democratic enthusiasm this year, it's just as likely that the curve will start heading back up at some point. We've still got 17 months to go before the election.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall

Discuss :: (4 Comments)

Senate Forecast: 52.4

by: Matt

Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 22:24:07 PM EDT

Welcome to the FINAL edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

Senate Forecast: 52.4 (-5.6), down 0.4 from the last forecast..  (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).

Here's where we ended up: CT is the 48th seat for the Dems. From there we have:

49: CA
50: WA
51: WV
52: CO
53: IL
54: NV
55: PA
56: KY

57: WI

Note that no one has moved AK to RL, but consider it a special bonus if we take it.

My prediction: we win CA, WA, WV, CO and PA for 53 seats. Leave your predictions in the comments.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.

Sources: DCW, SSP. Rothenberg, Cook, CQ, CrystalBall, Daily Kos, 538

DemConWatch
Senate Forecast
  Current/Avg DCW Cook SSP Rothenberg CQ CrystalBall 538 Daily Kos  
  10/31 11/1 11/1 11/1 10/25 10/28 11/1 10/29  
Dem-Strong 17 10 7 7 8 7 7 9 8  
Dem-Lean 4 1 2 1 2 4 2 2  
Tossup 1 7 6 6 6 0 2 4  
Rep-Lean 1 9 3 3 5 6 1 1  
Rep-Strong 19 21 13 19 19 17 20 23 22  
Dem '10 Projection 12.4 13.9 13.1 12.2 12.4 12.6 11.4 11.8 11.8  
Dem '12/'14 Seats 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40  
Dem Senate Projection 52.4 53.9 53.1 52.2 52.4 52.6 51.4 51.8 51.8  
Dem-Gain -6.6 -5.1 -5.9 -6.8 -6.6 -6.4 -7.6 -7.2 -7.2  
   
DE (Open) - 41 D D D D D D D D D  
HI (Inouye) - 42 D D D D D D D D D  
MD (Mikulski) - 43 D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Gillibrand) - 44 D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Schumer) - 45 D D D D D D D D D  
OR (Wyden) - 46 D D D D D D D D D  
VT (Leahy) - 47 D D D D D D D D D  
CT (Open) - 48 D D DL DL D DL DL D D  
CA (Boxer) - 49 D D T DL DL DL DL D DL  
WA (Murray) - 50 D D T T T T DL DL DL  
WV (Open) - 51 D DL T T T T DL DL T  
CO (Bennet) - 52 D DL T T T T RL T T  
IL (Open) - 53 D T T T T T RL T T  
NV (Reid) - 54 D DL T T T T RL RL T  
PA (Open) - 55 D DL T T T T RL R RL  
KY (Open) - 56 R RL RL RL RL RL RL R R  
WI (Feingold) - 57 D R RL RL RL RL RL R R  
MO (Open) - 58 R R RL RL RL RL R R R  
NH (Open) - 59 R R RL R R RL R R R  
OH (Open) - 60 R R RL R R RL R R R  
FL (Open) - 61 R R RL R R RL R R R  
IN (Open) - 62 D R RL R R R R R R  
AR (Lincoln) D R RL R R R R R R  
LA (Vitter) R R RL R R R R R R  
AK (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
AL (Shelby) R R R R R R R R R  
AZ (McCain) R R R R R R R R R  
GA (Isakson) R R R R R R R R R  
IA (Grassley) R R R R R R R R R  
ID (Crapo) R R R R R R R R R  
KS (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
NC (Burr) R R R R R R R R R  
ND (Open) D R R R R R R R R  
OK (Coburn) R R R R R R R R R  
SC (DeMint) R R R R R R R R R  
SD (Thune) R R R R R R R R R  
UT (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
 
Discuss :: (0 Comments)

Senate Forecast: 52.8

by: Matt

Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 22:25:50 PM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

Senate Forecast: 52.8 (-5.2), no change from the last forecast..  (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).

Cook and CQ both finally moved CT from T to DL, but both also moved WI from T to RL. We've been calling WA the firewall, and the chart shows why. It's the seat that will keep the Dems controlling the Senate.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.

Sources: DCW, SSP. Rothenberg, Cook, CQ, CrystalBall, Daily Kos, 538

DemConWatch
Senate Forecast
  Current/Avg DCW Cook SSP Rothenberg CQ CrystalBall 538 Daily Kos  
  10/20 10/21 10/18 10/15 10/21 10/21 10/21 10/21  
Dem-Strong 17 10 7 7 7 7 7 8 8  
Dem-Lean 4 1 3 2 2 2 2 1  
Tossup 3 8 5 7 6 4 3 6  
Rep-Lean 5 8 4 2 6 4 4 2  
Rep-Strong 19 15 13 18 19 16 20 20 20  
Dem '10 Projection 12.8 15.7 13.4 12.7 12.5 12.8 11.4 11.9 12.2  
Dem '12/'14 Seats 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40  
Dem Senate Projection 52.8 55.7 53.4 52.7 52.5 52.8 51.4 51.9 52.2  
Dem-Gain -6.2 -3.3 -5.6 -6.3 -6.5 -6.2 -7.6 -7.1 -6.8  
   
DE (Open) - 41 D D D D D D D D D  
HI (Inouye) - 42 D D D D D D D D D  
MD (Mikulski) - 43 D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Gillibrand) - 44 D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Schumer) - 45 D D D D D D D D D  
OR (Wyden) - 46 D D D D D D D D D  
VT (Leahy) - 47 D D D D D D D D D  
CT (Open) - 48 D D DL DL DL DL DL D D  
CA (Boxer) - 49 D D T DL DL DL DL DL T  
WA (Murray) - 50 D D T DL T T T DL DL  
WV (Open) - 51 D T T T T T T T T  
CO (Bennet) - 52 D DL T T T T RL T T  
IL (Open) - 53 D T T T T T T T T  
NV (Reid) - 54 D DL T T T T T RL T  
PA (Open) - 55 D DL T RL T T RL RL T  
KY (Open) - 56 R T T T T RL RL RL RL  
WI (Feingold) - 57 D T RL RL RL RL RL RL RL  
MO (Open) - 58 R RL RL RL RL RL R R R  
NH (Open) - 59 R RL RL RL R RL R R R  
OH (Open) - 60 R RL RL R R RL R R R  
FL (Open) - 61 R R RL R R RL R R R  
IN (Open) - 62 D RL RL R R R R R R  
AR (Lincoln) D R RL R R R R R R  
LA (Vitter) R R RL R R R R R R  
NC (Burr) R RL R R R R R R R  
AK (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
AL (Shelby) R R R R R R R R R  
AZ (McCain) R R R R R R R R R  
GA (Isakson) R R R R R R R R R  
IA (Grassley) R R R R R R R R R  
ID (Crapo) R R R R R R R R R  
KS (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
ND (Open) D R R R R R R R R  
OK (Coburn) R R R R R R R R R  
SC (DeMint) R R R R R R R R R  
SD (Thune) R R R R R R R R R  
UT (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
 
Discuss :: (1 Comments)

Senate Forecast: 52.8

by: Matt

Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 22:54:49 PM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

Senate Forecast: 52.8 (-5.2), down from 53.0. (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).

We're finally seeing some cross-currents as some of the forecasts are starting to bounce around instead of just getting redder. WA and WV moved slightly bluer, while WI and FL moved redder. No impact yet from encouraging polls from AK and MO.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.

Sources: DCW, SSP. Rothenberg, Cook, CQ, CrystalBall, Daily Kos, 538

DemConWatch
Senate Forecast
  Current/Avg DCW Cook SSP Rothenberg CQ CrystalBall 538 Daily Kos  
  10/10 10/7 10/18 10/15 10/14 10/14 10/18 10/18  
Dem-Strong 17 10 7 7 7 7 7 8 8  
Dem-Lean 3 0 3 2 1 2 3 2  
Tossup 4 11 5 7 7 4 2 4  
Rep-Lean 6 6 4 2 7 3 2 1  
Rep-Strong 19 14 13 18 19 15 21 22 22  
Dem '10 Projection 12.8 15.6 13.7 12.7 12.5 12.7 11.2 11.8 11.8  
Dem '12/'14 Seats 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40  
Dem Senate Projection 52.8 55.6 53.7 52.7 52.5 52.7 51.2 51.8 51.8  
Dem-Gain -6.2 -3.4 -5.3 -6.3 -6.5 -6.3 -7.8 -7.3 -7.2  
   
DE (Open) D D D D D D D D D  
HI (Inouye) D D D D D D D D D  
MD (Mikulski) D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Gillibrand) D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Schumer) D D D D D D D D D  
OR (Wyden) D D D D D D D D D  
VT (Leahy) D D D D D D D D D  
CT (Open) D D T DL DL T DL D D  
CA (Boxer) D D T DL DL DL DL DL T  
WA (Murray) D D T DL T T T DL DL  
WV (Open) D T T T T T T DL DL  
NV (Reid) D DL T T T T T T T  
IL (Open) D T T T T T T T T  
CO (Bennet) D DL T T T T RL RL T  
KY (Open) R T T T T RL RL RL R  
PA (Open) D DL T RL T RL R R RL  
WI (Feingold) D RL T RL RL T RL R R  
MO (Open) R RL T RL RL RL R R R  
NH (Open) R T RL RL R RL R R R  
IN (Open) D RL RL R R RL R R R  
OH (Open) R RL RL R R RL R R R  
FL (Open) R R RL R R RL R R R  
LA (Vitter) R RL RL R R R R R R  
AR (Lincoln) D R RL R R R R R R  
NC (Burr) R RL R R R R R R R  
AK (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
AL (Shelby) R R R R R R R R R  
AZ (McCain) R R R R R R R R R  
GA (Isakson) R R R R R R R R R  
IA (Grassley) R R R R R R R R R  
ID (Crapo) R R R R R R R R R  
KS (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
ND (Open) D R R R R R R R R  
OK (Coburn) R R R R R R R R R  
SC (DeMint) R R R R R R R R R  
SD (Thune) R R R R R R R R R  
UT (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
 
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Senate Forecast - October 11: 53.0

by: Matt

Mon Oct 11, 2010 at 10:00:00 AM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

Senate Forecast: 53.0 (-6.0), down from 53.7. (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).

FL and NH were the main culprits this time, with both going mostly pink.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.

Sources: DCW, SSP. Rothenberg, Cook, CQ, CrystalBall, Daily Kos, 538

DemConWatch
Senate Forecast
  Current/Avg DCW Cook SSP Rothenberg CQ CrystalBall 538 Daily Kos  
  10/10/10 10/7/10 9/30/10 10/7/10 9/30/10 9/30/10 10/7/10 10/8/10  
Dem-Strong 17 10 7 6 7 7 7 8 8  
Dem-Lean 3 0 4 2 1 2 2 1  
Tossup 4 11 6 8 8 5 2 4  
Rep-Lean 6 6 5 1 6 6 6 2  
Rep-Strong 19 14 13 16 19 15 17 19 22  
Dem '10 Projection 13.0 15.6 13.7 13.2 12.8 13.0 12.3 11.8 11.2  
Dem '12/'14 Seats 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40  
Dem Senate Projection 53.0 55.6 53.7 53.2 52.8 53.0 52.3 51.8 51.2  
Dem-Gain -5.3 -1.7 -5.3 -5.8 -6.2 -6.0 -6.7 -7.2 -7.8  
   
HI (Inouye) D D D D D D D D D  
MD (Mikulski) D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Gillibrand) D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Schumer) D D D D D D D D D  
OR (Wyden) D D D D D D D D D  
VT (Leahy) D D D D D D D D D  
DE (Open) D D D DL D D D D D  
CT (Open) D D T DL DL T DL D D  
CA (Boxer) D D T DL DL DL T DL DL  
WA (Murray) D D T DL T T T DL T  
WV (Open) D T T T T T DL T T  
IL (Open) D T T T T T T T T  
NV (Reid) D DL T T T T T RL T  
CO (Bennet) D DL T T T T RL RL RL  
WI (Feingold) D RL T T T T T RL R  
KY (Open) R T T T T RL RL RL RL  
PA (Open) D DL T RL T RL RL R R  
MO (Open) R RL T RL RL T RL R R  
NH (Open) R T RL RL R RL RL RL R  
FL (Open) R R RL RL R RL RL RL R  
OH (Open) R RL RL RL R RL R R R  
IN (Open) D RL RL R R RL R R R  
LA (Vitter) R RL RL R R R R R R  
AR (Lincoln) D R RL R R R R R R  
NC (Burr) R RL R R R R R R R  
AK (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
AL (Shelby) R R R R R R R R R  
AZ (McCain) R R R R R R R R R  
GA (Isakson) R R R R R R R R R  
IA (Grassley) R R R R R R R R R  
ID (Crapo) R R R R R R R R R  
KS (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
ND (Open) D R R R R R R R R  
OK (Coburn) R R R R R R R R R  
SC (DeMint) R R R R R R R R R  
SD (Thune) R R R R R R R R R  
UT (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
 
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Senate Forecast - September 28 update

by: Matt

Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 10:00:00 AM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

Senate Forecast: 53.7 (-5.2), down from 54.7 post-Delaware. (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).

While CA and WA seem to be heading from T back to DL, WV and CT are also now solidly in DL territory, putting more overall states in peril.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.

Sources: DCW, SSP. Rothenberg, Cook, CQ, CrystalBall, Daily Kos, 538

DemConWatch
Senate Forecast
  Current/Avg. DCW Cook SSP Rothenberg CQ CrystalBall 538 Daily Kos  
  9/24/10 9/16/10 9/22/10 9/24/10 9/18/10 9/23/10 9/22/10 9/23/10  
Dem-Strong 17 9 7 6 7 7 7 9 8  
Dem-Lean 6 1 5 1 2 2 2 3  
Tossup 5 12 7 10 7 5 2 3  
Rep-Lean 5 4 4 3 6 7 4 1  
Rep-Strong 19 12 13 15 16 15 16 20 22  
Dem '10 Projection 13.7 17.3 14.6 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.5 12.4 12.1  
Dem '12/'14 Seats 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40  
Dem Senate Projection 53.7 57.3 54.6 54.3 53.4 53.3 52.5 52.4 52.1  
Dem-Gain -5.3 -1.7 -4.4 -4.7 -5.6 -5.7 -6.5 -6.6 -6.9  
   
HI (Inouye) D D D D D D D D D  
MD (Mikulski) D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Schumer) D D D D D D D D D  
OR (Wyden) D D D D D D D D D  
VT (Leahy) D D D D D D D D D  
DE (Open) D D D DL D D D D D  
NY (Gillibrand) D DL D D D D D D D  
CT (Open) D D T DL DL DL DL D D  
WV (Open) D DL DL DL T DL DL D DL  
WA (Murray) D D T DL T T T DL DL  
CA (Boxer) D DL T DL T T T DL DL  
NV (Reid) D DL T T T T T T T  
IL (Open) D T T T T T T T T  
CO (Bennet) D DL T T T T RL RL T  
WI (Feingold) D DL T T T T T RL R  
PA (Open) D D T RL T RL RL R R  
NH (Open) R T T T RL RL RL RL RL  
KY (Open) R T T T T RL RL R R  
FL (Open) R T T T RL RL RL RL R  
MO (Open) R RL T RL T T RL R R  
OH (Open) R RL RL RL RL RL R R R  
IN (Open) D RL RL R R RL R R R  
NC (Burr) R RL R RL R R RL R R  
AK (Open) R T R R R R R R R  
LA (Vitter) R RL RL R R R R R R  
AR (Lincoln) D R RL R R R R R R  
AL (Shelby) R R R R R R R R R  
AZ (McCain) R R R R R R R R R  
GA (Isakson) R R R R R R R R R  
IA (Grassley) R R R R R R R R R  
ID (Crapo) R R R R R R R R R  
KS (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
ND (Open) D R R R R R R R R  
OK (Coburn) R R R R R R R R R  
SC (DeMint) R R R R R R R R R  
SD (Thune) R R R R R R R R R  
UT (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
 
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Thank You Tea Party: Senate Forecast Update

by: Matt

Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 21:11:55 PM EDT

All our Senate Forecasts have updated (I updated 538 based on Nate's post on Monday). The good news is the forecast moved from 53.9 to 54.7. The bad news is the forecast had already moved from our 9/1 forecast of 54.6 to 53.9 by 9/5, just 4 days later, so the last 2 weeks were a wash. But we'll still take yesterday's gain. Thanks, Tea Party!

 

 

 

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