A month and a half ago, FHQ posted a link to and discussed a presidential election forecasting model built on candidate biographical information. The benefit of this model -- and it performs quite well stacked up against other forecasting models -- is that the biographical data exists now. In other words, you don't have to wait until the second quarter economic numbers are released or to wait on polling data from a particular period of time in the election year to put an accurate forecast together. I left off in that post urging folks to start scouring the biographical data on the prospective 2012 Republicans.
But why do that? Well, if you're patient, you'll be pleasantly surprised by an email from the authors of the original research. And lo and behold, one of those co-authors, Andreas Graefe (the other is J. Scott Armstrong), emailed me this morning to inform me that -- yes, that's right -- they've already looked at the Obama v. Palin numbers. How does Palin fare against the President?
Click here for an enlarged view of the table above.
Do you belong to LinkedIn? If you work in industry, you most certainly do, since big business is very into Web 2.0, and most major companies have LinkedIn pages for their employees. You probably also belong if you work for a smaller company, like to business-network, or you possibly belong for non-business reasons. It's very different from Facebook/MySpace/Twitter as this isn't a feed, it's more a place to make business connections, and communicate within specific networks, like those intra-office ones, or professional associations.
This hasn't been lost on Sarah "Spunky" Palin. She's now a LinkedIn member (H/T MisterEd). It could be because she's having so much trouble in her speaking career. Getting called a "blithering idiot" by the bookers won't get one gigs. Her book is doing well in terms of pre-orders, but we'll see if that translates into anyone besides the media actually reading it.
Yup, you betcha', there it is, Spunky on LinkedIn.
She already has more than 500 people in her network, so maybe she'll be able to make that work for her.
But would you hire her? She's quit every job she ever had, even when it had a term associated with it, like "mayor" and "governor".
That won't stop people from voting for her, because the American electorate makes some very good choices, and some very BAD choices, and she falls in the latter category. But so long as the names Ensign, Vitter, Sanford, Cantor, Boehner, hell, you know the list, stay elected, Spunky has a shot, too.
So without further ado, now that we know Spunky is on the business market, where do you think she should put her energies?
There was potentially big 2012 news today, when reports went out that Iowa had moved their caucuses to a Saturday afternoon. Such a move could have a big impact for the turnout at the presidential caucuses.
But it turns out, the story was not what it seemed. First, the move to Saturday was for the 2010 caucuses, not the 2012 caucuses. I mean, who even knew that Iowa had caucuses in the mid-year? Next you know, you'll be having political conventions in the mid-year also. How silly would that be. Oh, never mind.
But more importantly, it turns out this decision really doesn't mean much for 2012:
Both men say the decision to hold the 2010 Caucuses on a Saturday has no bearing on the date of the 2012 Caucuses when it's likely Iowa Republicans will to be choosing from among an array of presidential candidates and Iowa Democrats will be endorsing Barack Obama's reelection effort.
"This is only about 2010," Sterzenbach says. "Any discussions for 2012 will involve the Democratic National Committee as well as the Iowa Democratic Party."
The Iowa Republican Party's executive director agrees.
"This decision is a stand-alone," Boeyink says. "2012 decisions will have to be made based on working with our counterparts at the Iowa Democratic Party and us working with our folks at the Republican National Committee."
So much ado about nothing. And speaking of 2012, here's William Shatner, showing how Sarah Palin's resignation speech really was a work of art:
Public Policy Polling has a new poll out pitting President Obama against four potential competitors in a series of 2012 general election trial heats. Among the four Republicans, Mike Huckabee polled the best against Obama and was the only match-up where the president was under the fifty percent support mark. Here are the results from PPP's national survey of 686 voters over the weekend (April 17-19):
What do you call an elected official who would turn down funding for education? Specifically: money that would go directly to economically disadvantaged and special needs children.
Need another clue? How about someone who would murder defenseless animals in violation of state, and potentially Federal, regulations?
Give up?
Meet Spunky Palin, dedicated to playing to the heart of the IIE base at the expense of her state, and the wolf population of Alaska.
The Anchorage Daily News has the info on the stimulus money. They report that her logic is that some of the stimulus money (she's turning down 31% of it) is only temporary. Response:
Acting Anchorage Mayor Mayor Matt Claman said he's disappointed Palin chose to turn down funding that would create jobs and maintain services. "Her rationale is like turning down a gift card because it expires in two years," Claman said in a written statement.
While the media obsesses over Governor Palin's private family life, she is getting away with illegally slaughtering large numbers of wolves from the air," said Defenders Action Fund president Rodger Schlickeisen. "The governor is even encouraging the killing of wolves that reside and den mostly on federal land, which belongs to all of us, not just Alaskans. There is no biological emergency in Alaska that warrants such measures."
Think this is anything OTHER THAN pandering to the base? WRONG -- she's still going after earmarks.
Palin has asked the state's congressional delegation to obtain more than $69 million in earmarks for Alaska in next year's federal budget. The administration's earmark requests include $11 million for the Tok River bridge, which is tied to the natural gas pipeline; $35 million for projects connected to the Kodiak missile launch facility; and $5.4 million for rural law enforcement training and equipment for drug and alcohol interdiction.
Do you owe back taxes? Sarah Palin does, and she's going to have to pay them. Way back when, there was an issue about whether she should have to pay taxes on the expense money she received FOR LIVING AT HOME. Yes, that's right. Instead of living in the actual state capital of Juneau, Alaska, Sarah lived at home, and charged the state not only for commuting charges, but for a per diem.
Well, it's time to pay the piper. Anchorage Daily News is reporting that:
Gov. Sarah Palin must pay income taxes on thousands of dollars in expense money she received while living at her Wasilla home, under a new determination by state officials.
[...]Palin billed the state for 312 nights spent in her Wasilla home during her first 19 months in office, according to the Washington Post. She received $60 a day tax free, money intended to cover meals and incidentals, while traveling on state business, her travel forms show.[...]
The governor's office wouldn't say this week how much she owes in back taxes for meal money, or whether she intends to continue to receive the per diem allowance. As of December, she was still charging the state for meals and incidentals.
Incidentally, it appears that Mark Begich, along with a bunch of state employees, also owes some back taxes.
The Politico story about the survey said his situation echoed that of Tom Daschle, who had to step down as President Barack Obama's pick for health secretary after revelations about back taxes, including taxes owed for a limo and driver.
"For Politico to say it's the same as Daschle -- that's bunk," Begich said.
When it was announced that Spunky was going to be there because President Obama was going to be speaking, my ears perked up. First, I had never heard of the Alfalfa Club before. I swear, my first mental image came from The Little Rascals. Then a midwest crop field.
The White House Press Office was kind enough to send over these excerpts from President Obama's speech at the Alfalfa Club dinner last night.
I am seriously glad to be here tonight at the annual Alfalfa dinner. I know that many you are aware that this dinner began almost one hundred years ago as a way to celebrate the birthday of General Robert E. Lee. If he were here with us tonight, the General would be 202 years old. And very confused.
Now, this hasn't been reported yet, but it was actually Rahm's idea to do the swearing-in ceremony again. Of course, for Rahm, every day is a swearing-in ceremony. But don't believe what you read. Rahm Emanuel is a real sweetheart. No, it's true. Every week the guy takes a little time away to give back to the community. Just last week he was at a local school, teaching profanity to poor children.
But these are the kind of negotiations you have to deal with as President. In just the first few weeks, I've had to engage in some of the toughest diplomacy of my life. And that was just to keep my Blackberry. I finally agreed to limit the number of people who could email me. It's a very exclusive list. How exclusive? Everyone look at the person sitting on your left. Now look at the person sitting on your right. None of you have my email address.
It was hatched nearly 100 years ago in a bar where half a century earlier, Sen. Henry Clay of Kentucky, the "Great Compromiser," brought North and South together by introducing Washington to the joys of the mint julep.
They wanted to start a club that would meet once a year around Jan. 19, the birthday of Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee.
So, okay, I understand. A bunch of old white guys drinking. ALL the club does is hold this annual dinner/roast. As has been widely reported in the news, blacks weren't admitted until the 1970's, and women weren't allowed until the 1990's. I'm not sure why they decided to admit blacks, but the Times infers that inviting women had to do with Bill Clinton's non-attendance.
Yup, you betcha', there it is, Spunky on LinkedIn. 
When it was announced that Spunky was going to be there because President Obama was going to be speaking, my ears perked up. First, I had never heard of the Alfalfa Club before. I swear, my first mental image came from The Little Rascals. Then a midwest crop field. 
