The final results are in for the Illinois Senate race: as expected it will be Alex Giannoulias vs Mark Kirk. The gubernatorial race is not yet clear. On the Democratic side, both Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes have 50% of the vote, with Quinn up by about 7,200 votes with 99% of the precincts counted. There is also no clear winner on the GOP side.
In Florida, in the race to takeover the seat vacated by Box Wexler, on the Democratic side, Ted Deutch won with over 77% of the vote. He'll go up against Ed Lynch, who won with 42% on the Republican side.
Back with more in a little bit -- there's some snow to clear....
Last night I attended a blogger conference call for Kendrick Meek. If you don't know him, he's a current Congressman running for Senate from Florida. The call was led by campaign manager Abe Dyk. This is the be the first of many conference calls. The Meek campaign is committed to being people-powered, and therefore wants to ensure information dissemination to bloggers. They also have Facebook pages and a Twitter presence.
The real part of "people-powered" is that they see their path to victory being involved with getting non-traditional voters to the polls. One of the ways they are approaching this is a petition drive. Dyk said that the Meek campaign is the first Senate campaign in Florida history to choose to qualify for the ballot via petition. I asked about this, because I didn't understand the Florida system. It turns out that to be on the ballot in Florida, one can qualify by having a number of signed ballots which relate to a percentage of the voters in the last election of that type. In this case, they will need 112,476 legitimate signatures. The other option is to pay a filing fee equal to 7% of the annual salary of the position. The campaign's position is that "People put Kendrick Meek on the ballot, not a check."
There were two incredibly obnoxious bloggers on the call who kept pressing for an exact number of signed petitions. I say that they were "incredibly obnoxious" because when I tuned in to the call a few minutes before the official start time, they were talking about BDSM, and insulting medical doctors, chiropractors, and the overall population of Tallahassee. Dyk said that there was a lag between when signatures were turned in to the counties and when they were verified. The lag could be up to 30 days. He said that the campaign was already halfway there, and he didn't have an exact number, because there were still many signatures in the pipeline. The trend appears solid, and I don't think we need a more precise number than that.
Dyk's point is valid: if people sign a nominating petition, they are more likely to vote for that candidate. One of the greatest lessons of the Obama campaign was that the more times a voter is "touched" (called, visited, or the voter gives money) the higher the probability that voter will turn out for that candidate on election day. In Florida, given early and absentee voting, they have more opportunities than "just one day" to get the voters out.
After the jump: demographics, more of the plan, and analysis.
Governor Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio are now tied in the 2010 race for the Republican Senate nomination in Florida.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters finds Crist and Rubio each with 43% of the vote. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. -Rasmussen
More polls like this and Crist might just drop out rather than be humiliated.
Update: In theory, he could also run as an Independent, or essentially pull a Specter and run as a Democrat.
The next time Matt updates the Senate rankings, you'll notice that my Florida ranking has been changed from "Leans Republican" to "Solid Republican." I had held some hope that maybe, just maybe, we could take the seat, but that was predicated on Charlie Crist winning the GOp primary, and that ship sailed.
Rubio seems to be unstoppable, and my potential pick fave candidate doesn't want to run on the Democratic side. My reasoning doesn't rely on polls, but on demographics and a few, um, intangibles, but I know you folks like polls, so here you go:
Gov. Charlie Crist's lead over former state house speaker Marco Rubio in the 2010 Republican U.S. Senate primary has been cut in half from 55 - 26 percent to 50 - 35 percent, but the Governor tops the leading Democrat, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, 51 - 31 percent among all voters, while Rubio trails Meek 36 - 33 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters in the state finds Crist outdistancing Rubio 49% to 35%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and 12% are undecided.
A new Rasmussen Reports survey of Florida voters shows Governor Charlie Crist leading Representative Kendrick Meek by a 46% to 34% margin. In August, Crist led by 19 and in June he was ahead by 21.
Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio leads Meek by a similar margin, 46% to 31%. In August, Rubio led by 13 percentage points.
In both situations, Crist is dropping relative to Rubio, and in the Rasmussen poll, has fallen below the critical 50% mark.
If you like polling data, you know it's not just the raw numbers, but the trends.
I believe Rubio eventually wins both the primary and the general, and therefore the seat stays Republican for a few reasons. First, the black vs. brown issue. Hispanics in Florida are better organized than African Americans. Don't get me wrong, Kendrick Meek's mother Carrie is a force to be reckoned with, and she held the seat Kendrick has now for the 10 years preceding him. It's an overwhelmingly Democratic district. The rest of Florida is not such a Democratic happy place.
Second, the older vote in Florida is something to consider. The choice will be between a serious progressive and a serious conservative. (Rubio is backed by the Club for Growth.) If you look at what happened in the NY-23, and what is happening in the Texas gubernatorial race, you'll notice that the far right wingnuts organize MUCH better than the "regular" Republicans, and their machine is nothing to scoff at. Democrats in Florida don't have that sort of organization, nor the drive to get behind a true progressive.
So, I'm thinking this race is cherry red, and our money and efforts are better spent in more competitive Senate races next year. I'd like to be wrong.
Will You Endorse Stimulus-Supporting, President Obama Hugging Charlie Crist Or Club For Growth Endorsed Marco Rubio?
Dear Governor Palin,
I noticed that you will be in Florida next week to promote your new book Going Rogue. As you know, Florida is home to a competitive Senate race, with either Governor Charlie Crist or former state House Speaker Marco Rubio to face off against Democrat Kendrick Meek. I’m not sure how familiar you are with Governor Crist, but he is a politician who has a history of putting politics above principals, something you surely look down upon. Whether the issue is off shore drilling, supporting the stimulus, or opposition to Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, Crist has either flip-flopped, flip-flop-flipped, or been motivated purely by politics. Crist has the support of the Washington establishment, while Rubio has the support of many grassroots Republicans across Florida. However, you do have something in common with Charlie Crist in that both of you effectively quit on your states. Although Crist is still governor, he has been noticeably absent from his job and has failed to provide the kind of leadership Florida deserves. On the other hand, Marco Rubio is comfortable in his own skin as an extreme right-winger, who has the backing of the Club for Growth, Karl Rove, and Senators DeMint and Inhofe. I know you are in three Florida cities next week, any of which would be the perfect setting to give your blessing to either Crist or Rubio. With the NY-23 special election over, many are now calling the Florida Republican Senate primary, “the next battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party.” With so much at stake, everyone wants to know – who will you endorse in the Florida Senate race?
As reported in the Quick Hits a few days ago, Charlie Crist has decided to appoint George LeMieux as replacement Senator for the retiring Mel Martinez. Now, Martinez was a Republican's Republican. And we all know what that means. (I...I...E...)
"I describe myself as a Charlie Crist Republican," LeMieux said. [...]
In his only run for elected office, for the Statehouse in 1998, LeMieux favored gay rights, including adoptions.
And it was LeMieux who urged Crist to snub President George W. Bush just days before the 2006 election.
LeMieux worked with Crist, who was attorney general at the time, when Crist decided to stay out of the emotional fray surrounding the legislative and legal battle to keep Terri Schiavo alive.
Could he be a m-o-d-e-r-a-t-e Republican? Like recent convert Arlen Specter?
He used to put out a newsletter called The Lemieux Report, and while it doesn't seem to have been updated since late June, there was this from the last newsletter:
Topic 5: High Speed Rail
While the Central Florida SunRail was again derailed by the Florida Senate in the final hours of the 2009 Legislative Session, hope for a high-speed commuter rail between Florida metro centers is not lost.
The Federal Railroad Administration recently issued "pre-application" interim guidelines for state's wishing to participate in the high-speed plan. Florida will complete the "pre-application" by the July 10th deadline and submit a formal application later this year.
The first round of funding would be used to upgrade and increase production speeds of existing lines, quickly creating construction jobs. Next, planners would focus on mapping out high-speed rail corridors to be built after the original phases of the project are completed. Cities must compete to be selected for the plan.
BOTTOM LINE: This is the right thing to do with Federal stimulus dollars. Imagine being able to travel to and from the major city and university centers in Florida in an hour or two, without having to suffer through long road trips or the vagaries, hassles, and costs of airline travel. A high-speed rail corridor would benefit the entire state and provide relief to travelers who are tired of standing in long airport lines or getting stuck in traffic jams.
A Republican who believes that there are good things to do with stimulus dollars. HHHMMMNNN.
Don't count your chickens, in the things that matter to progressives, LeMieux will vote no differently than Martinez.
LeMieux said he will visit Washington next week. He will take his seat after Sept. 9 to help oppose President Barack Obama's healthcare plan and offer Republican alternatives.
He's 40, and therefore will be the youngest current member of the Senate. He has never won elected office of any sort.
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R): 41 , Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 ; Mark Kirk (R): 47 , Cheryle Jackson (D): 30
Is Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) going to challenge Sen. Chuck "they're gonna kill grandma" Grassley?
Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle will not run for reelection.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist may pickRep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart to replace Sen. Mel Martinez. Would this tempt Crist's opponent for the open Senate seat, Marco Rubio, to run for Congress instead? Or maybe even run for brother Mario Diaz-Balart's seat?
Today, Congresswoman Wasserman Schultz will be on Good Morning America, and later, she will take to the steps of the Capitol to speak about breast cancer awareness in younger women. She will be introducing legislation for a national educational campaign for self-exams, starting at a young age. Her story:
Wasserman Schultz discovered a breast lump through a self-exam, two months after her first mammogram at 40. Although the cancer was detected at an early stage, she also learned that as an Ashkenazi Jew of Eastern European descent, she was at greater risk of carrying a gene mutation that makes Ashkenazi Jews predisposed to breast cancer and recurrence. She tested positive for this BRCA2 gene mutation, prompting her to have both breasts removed.
She was also at higher risk of ovarian cancer and had her ovaries removed -- the day after Election Day. Her final surgery was in December, almost a year after her diagnosis.
Because the cancer was caught so early, she didn't need chemotherapy or radiation but will take the cancer drug tamoxifen for five years.
In total, she had seven surgeries over the past year. And think back, she was never out of the public eye. Whether or not you agree with her politics (and personally, I don't always agree with her) this sort of courage, stamina and dedication is remarkable.
We applaud the Congresswoman for going public with her story, and hope that it will encourage women to undertake self-exams on a regular basis. While the mortality rate for breast cancer has been falling, that decrease is mostly in older women. Younger women will skip exams because "I'm too young, it can't happen to me", and often their doctors will discount things for the age reason. Breast cancer is often more virulent and aggressive in younger women.
So if you're a woman: check. If you don't know how, see here. If you love a woman: your wife, significant other, mother, sister, daughter, friend - remind her, too. Early detection leads to the highest rate of cure.
Let's start with Florida. Y'all know that Mel Martinez is planning on calling it quits. but did you know that Baby Bush is promoting one of his brothers for the job. No joke. He called him "awesome."
Then again, Jeb might not want the endorsement. and before we leave the Busies, please repeat after me: "Neil Bush, Silverado Savings and Loan, $1 billion in Federal funds." Thanks, I feel better now. If you want to add a chorus of "John McShame, Keating Savings and Loan" and then look at the "endorsement" link again, you'll feel better too.
Now, on to New Mexico. Do you know who the guys are in the picture below?
The guy on the left is former republican state Rep. and lobbyist Joe Thompson. The guy on the right is Santa Fe business man Jerry Peters, a friend of Governor Bill Richardson. And the guy in the middle? Val Kilmer. Theoretically, he is mulling a run to replace Bill Richardson.
To round out the day, you probably know that Sam Brownback (R-KS) has decided to retire in 2010. Good for the Senate. (Especially if Kathleen Sebelius wins the seat.) But did you know that he is planning on running for Governor of Kansas? According to CNN, he'll hold off filing until January to preclude having to disclose all sorts of financial details until 2010.
Minnesota: As we reported this week, the first part of the Franken-Coleman recount is over. Next up, absentee ballots.
Illinois: We still do not have a replacement for the seat vacated by President-elect Obama. Blagojevich granted an interview this week about his thoughts on the President-elect's Senate seat. Currently at the top of what he said was a long list are Dem Representatives Jan Schakowsky; Danny Davis, and Luis Gutierrez, also former state Senate President Emil Jones, Veterans Affairs chief Tammy Duckworth, and Attorney General Lisa Madigan. He has already interviewed Schakowsky, Davis and Gutierrez.
What of Jesse Jackson, Jr's very public lobbying for the position?
"He's got a right to do it," Blagojevich said, "and he obviously believes in himself as a candidate for the United States Senate and his public campaign is, you know, something he obviously believes appropriate and helpful, and all power to him."
Blagojevich has not ruled Jackson in or out, although he did say in the interview that he does not consider the seat an "African American seat." If he does not appoint an Africa-American to fill the seat, there will be none in the Senate.
After the jump: Hillary Clinton's seat in 2009, and 2010 updates for Florida and Pennsylvania
Last night I attended a blogger conference call for Kendrick Meek. If you don't know him, he's a current Congressman running for Senate from Florida. The call was led by campaign manager Abe Dyk. This is the be the first of many conference calls. The Meek campaign is committed to being people-powered, and therefore wants to ensure information dissemination to bloggers. They also have Facebook pages and a Twitter presence. 
Today, Congresswoman Wasserman Schultz will be on Good Morning America, and later, she will take to the steps of the Capitol to speak about breast cancer awareness in younger women. She will be introducing legislation for a national educational campaign for self-exams, starting at a young age. Her 
Let's start with Florida. Y'all know that Mel Martinez is planning on calling it quits. but did you know that Baby Bush is promoting one of his brothers for the job. No joke. He 
The guy on the left is former republican state Rep. and lobbyist Joe Thompson. The guy on the right is Santa Fe business man Jerry Peters, a friend of Governor Bill Richardson. And the guy in the middle? Val Kilmer. Theoretically, he is 
2008: 
