If you don't live in Pennsylvania, the only race you may care about is the Senatorial primary between Arlen and Joe. But you may notice that there are 50 state senate positions and 203 state assembly positions. There may be more or fewer in your state, but there are a bunch in every state. And these folks will be responsible for redistricting in most states in 2011, therefore who wins this year has an absolute influence on our lives. Not to mention all the other state legislation that affects each and every one of us on a daily basis.
But that's not why I bring it up. I looked over the list to see how many of the people I know made their numbers for signed petitions. And that means "know", as in if you mentioned my name to them, they would know who I was. People often ask me how I know politicians, as if there is some magic to it. There isn't. You go to a place where they are, introduce yourself, have a conversation, maybe have coffee or lunch with them, write them notes, engage them in conversation. In this day and age, you can even be a politician's facebook friend: some only have fan pages, but many have regular pages where you can interact with them.
Elected officials at the state level are glad to know their constituents. Sure, there are some who are lazy, smarmy and untrustworthy and they don't want to know you, but most are decent people trying to do the best they can for their constituency within a system that is often byzantine.
I would like to bring your attention to the Democratic candidate for the 41st Assembly district: Jerry Policoff. I've known him a long time, and I've written about him in the past here on DCW because of his great work on Single Payer. Jerry was asked to run just because otherwise the Republican would run unopposed. He has never run for office before: he took on the petition process with gusto. While a lesser man would have let the people who asked him to run spread the petitions, he was out every day meeting people, telling them about himself, asking them for their signatures, and potentially for their support. He's put together a team who will help him with logistics/field planning, finance, and advertising. Jerry won't need help with messaging as his beliefs are sure, and he's a longtime writer, one who is very skilled. And yes, I'll be giving as much tactical support as I can.
Every four years people come out and most treat the presidential election like a sporting event: they care only about polls and percentages. They don't know any of the candidates at any level, they don't work the campaigns, they don't give money: it's all an abstraction. But governing goes on daily, year in year out. You should know who your people are, and maybe you want to try to be one of them!
By July, Illinois will be $130,000,000,000 (that's BILLION!) in debt. This crushing load hampers the state's ability to fund public schools and universities, health care, and other essential public services. Most of that money is owed to the state's pension funds and retiree health care plans. And YOUR SHARE of that debt is $25,000 per household.
How did this happen? Basically, Illinois spends $3 for every $2 it takes in. The state accomplishes this by borrowing or by simply ignoring its unpaid bills.
And it has been doing so for years.This year alone, Illinois will be short more than $14,000,000,000.
The last line of the article reminded me about the Tuesday primary. Now, the article is from a far right site, and I'm wondering how this will affect the GOP-side outcomes.
Polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time, and we'll have the results.
So, in preparation, here's your scorecard:
For Roland Burris' Senate Seat:
Democrats:
Alexander Giannoulias (Presumed Winner)
David Hoffman
Cheryle Robinson Jakcson
Robert Marshall
Jacob Meister
Republicans
John Arrington
Pat Hughes
Mark Kirk (Presumed Winner)
Don Lowery
Andy Martin
Kathleen Thomas
There is also one Green, and several Libertarians and Independents, but they won't matter in the general. The Greens will have an actual primary, everyone else (some still deciding) will run on the general but have no primary.
Governor
Pat Quinn is running for election. (Re-election? Unsure since he's the incumbent but promoted, not elected. Y'all remember Rod "Hair" Blagojevich, right? The Justice Department still does....). He has a challenger in Dan Hynes, the current comptroller, but that would be a real upset.
On the Republican side:
Bill Brady
Kirk Dillard
Andy McKenna
Dan Proft
Jim Ryan
Bob Schillerstrom
Again, an uncontested Green candidate, and minor party candidates.
The Lieutenant Governor's office has remained vacant since Quinn's ascent. Here are the candidates:
Democrats:
Thomas Castillo
Scott Cohen
Rickey Hendon
Terry Link
Arthur Turner
Republicans
Brad Cole
Dennis Cook
Matt Murphy
Jason Plummer
Don Tracy
Randy White, Sr.
In the House, most people are running unopposed with the following exceptions: Bobby Rush (D), Dan Lipinski (D), and Danny Davis (D). I don't see any of them losing. In addition, since Mark Kirk is running for Senator, his House seat has a bunch of Republicans running.
There are also other state offices, which we'll report on as they come in.
Stay tuned all night for results from today's special election to fill the seat left open by the passing of Senator Edward Kennedy.
While we're waiting for polls to close take a look at Swing State Project's Town-by-Town Benchmark Map. And for even more detail a town-by-town spreadsheet that's sure to be a hit with even the biggest political wonks. It shows what percentage of the vote Coakley needs to get to have a 50-50 finish.
8:10 - polls have been closed for 10 minutes. Rasmussen post-election (not exit) poll - Coakley leads 47-41 among late deciders, but 22% of Dems voted for Brown.
8:12 - early returns per Boston Globe show 44-55 with less than 1% in
8:26 - Worcester is the earliest big town reporting, and with less than 1% of the vote in, Coakley is ahead 214-66, no reports yet from Boston
8:39 - Boston is 4% in - 51%/48% Coakley over Brown
8:50 - Boston is 9% in 56% - 43% Coakley over Brown
8:53 - Boston, Worcester, Springfield, Lowell -- bigger places, Coakley leading - but that's certainly not carrying in the smaller towns. Turnout VERY high for a special election.
8:56 (via Twitter) Stat from pollster. In 08 Obama won Boston 79-20. Coakley ahead 56-43 with 10% Boston reporting.
9:08 - It's just about over. Brown up by 87,000 votes. 63% in.
9:16 - Coakley calls Brown to concede
9:22 - Lead is over 100K votes
10:01 - Lead is 114K. Brown with way more votes than McCain in '08.
Over at Kos, they do a weekly tracking poll. One blogger put the latest results in the following chart:
Pretty ugly for the Democrats. If these numbers hold, the internecine warfare of the tea baggers and the rest of the GOP won't matter.
A while back, a member of the DCW community wrote about how he had voted in his last election. It was painful for me to read as I know him from years of political action. While we're "regular" friends, we met because of some election or other years ago on which we both were working.
I'm starting to hear from a lot of people who aren't planning on voting next year: Democrats all.
I'm not talking about the people who won't WORK the election, nor an individual campaign, but who have made a conscious decision to stay home from the polls on election day.
Wish I could say that I don't understand, or that I'm convinced they'll change their minds and come out at the last minute because these people have never missed an election. But in my heart, I'm with them. At this point, I plan on voting, because I believe in process and I've never missed a major election (I once missed a primary because I had major surgery that day and didn't have time to plan ahead for an absentee ballot but that was the only one). But it won't be with joy and enthusiasm.
And if someone like ME is incredibly discouraged - what does that say about things in general?
When I talk to the discouraged, their reasoning is simple: they feel abandoned by the Democratic Party and its values. They see a drift to the center, an abandonment of campaign promises at all levels of elected officials, a dearth of progressive candidates for next year and have a sense that voting won't matter. I always ask if this might just be fatigue, like a hangover from the excitement of last year, but they claim it isn't.
Has this affected you? Are you planning on voting? If not, what would the party and its elected officials need to accomplish between now and next November to get you to vote? If you are planning on not voting, how will you feel about going back to a Republican Congress and a Democratic White House and complete gridlock for at least two years? If you are planning on voting, and you know people who aren't - is there something YOU can do to help re-energize them? Would you want to?
The spinmeisters will be out today making things look as rosy as they can for each individual agenda. At least most of them are going to miss a few overriding points.
The Virginia Gubernatorial race was unwinnable ever since Criegh Deeds said if elected, he'd opt-out Virginia from the Public Option. CW will say "this is a mandate on Obama" or "this is the Sabato law" - but it's not. It was a poorly-run, underfunded campaign and a candidate who either wouldn't or couldn't play well with the Democrats in the DC suburbs.
The lesson of the New Jersey Gubernatorial race was that, as James Carville famously said: "It's the economy, stupid." There is a side issue of Corzine spending a bit too much time insulting Christie, but mostly it was a message problem. Not enough time was spent touting how he was able to keep the senior homestead exemption, increase student achievement, and everything else positive accomplished by his administration.
The lesson in Maine is less clear. It may be that a lot of people will accept gay marriage when it's a fait accompli more than they will personally vote for it. I don't know, but I know time will tell.
In the NY-23, the lesson is that evil is squelched when a few good people stand up and say NO.
But there is a more important lesson. A MUCH more important lesson. Whether or not the Democratic Party and registered Democrats learn it will be the difference between whether or not we hold the dual chamber Congressional majority next year, not to the mention the state houses.
It is the lesson of the grassroots, and the lesson of organization.
The parable is my little precinct. Last year, the precinct voted for Obama overwhelmingly. It was the first time in history (including 1936 and 1964) that the town voted for a Democratic presidential candidate. Albeit, in the 1930's, the "town" was actually something like the population of three big farms, one Inn, and a few thousand deer.
Last year, voter turnout was huge, this year it was minimal. The registration advantage in our precinct went from about 80% Republican 20 years ago to +7 Democrats today. That's not 7%, that's 7 voters. This year, 569 people voted in the precinct, or 20.3%. 145 people voted a straight Democratic ballot, 143 voted a straight Republican ticket. Of those 145 straight Democratic tickets, I knew 45 of them. They live in the area in which I serve as block captain. I know how they voted because they either came and told me as they were leaving, texted, emailed or called me. (And one of them was me, stub number 01). So when I say that getting "my" voters out mattered...in the school board race, our candidate received 290 votes, to the 274 the creationist garnered. She lost because it was a multi-precinct race, but she won here. In fact, except for ONE school board seat, the Democrats lost every single other position.
The reason we lost is the lesson we should have learned last year: grassroots organizing works. Without organization and constant contact, the voters stay home. Getting them to register as Democrats is not enough.
My precinct, with slightly over 1000 registered voters, is the largest of the 17 precincts in my town. Our polling place is the township building. Therefore, we have a large area in front of the building, both a handicap ramp and a large short stairway, lots of pavement going out to the access road, a large parking lot, and areas of grass.
It has been the case for the more than 10 years that we've voted at this building that Democratic signs go to the left of the building, and Republican signs go to the right. This morning, the Republicans had inserted additional signs on the left of the building, and when we tried to balance on the right, we were PHYSICALLY opposed.
Further, in addition to the normal crew of workers that you see at 7 a.m. every election, there were a bunch of unknown Republican faces. By about 9, two young people, one male, one female, arrived. They brought their own table and chairs, candy, bumper stickers, literature and TEE SHIRTS. That's right, TEE SHIRTS to hand out to people. Their candidate? The local creationist running for school board. He's associated with ISI, and they did an incredibly professional job of promoting him while playing down his view of teaching creationism as science.
The two Republican candidates for Town Supervisor had also hired professionals: the candidates themselves were two young women without an hour of public service between them, but the campaigns were reasonably expensive. Also negative, and filled with out and out lies that were publicized only the last weekend before the election.
The amazing thing, though, was the attempt to intimidate the Democrats working the polls. In off years, there are generally 2 people from each party greeting voters. Sometimes a third person because a voter "hangs" with his/her people. Normally, we know "whose voter is who" most of the time. Both sides know their voters by name, and Democrats come to the left to say hi, Republicans go to the right, and new people and Independents listen politely as they take lit from both sides. People with questions approach "their" table.
This year, the Republicans had a minimum of 5 people, usually 7, and they would move en masse to any voter coming up the path from the parking lot. Like a mob. If we tried to move towards someone, we were blocked. Luckily, this didn't stop voters from being able to talk with us once they passed the gauntlet.
Were we actually intimidated? Some of the voters were, and mentioned it. One older woman said she felt "menaced." We the workers, though, were unconcerned. First, we didn't believe that people we've known for years would actually harm us, and second, the township building also houses the police station....
There was more to be concerned about related to turnout and overall organization. More on that later today.
Update: 7:55 - Polls close in 5 minutes. I'm starting to think they're holding off on calling VA so people keep watching until NJ polls close.
Update 8:00 - Too close to call. This won't be happening anytime soon.
Update 9:07 - Surprisingly, on the official NJ election returns STATE site, there is no listing for Lt. Governor. The candidates are neither listed individually, nor paired with the gubernatorial candidate of the same party. Wonder if it's an oversight since this is the first time there has been such an elected position???
Update 10:12 - MSNBC just called Jersey for Christie
Update 9:00 - Turns out Mayor Mike put $100 MILLION into the race, of his own money. Imagine if he'd spent it instead on medical care or food for sick/hungry New Yorkers.
Update 9:27 - Mayor Mike at 64% with 2% in - we'll only update if the outcome changes. Which it won't. Morgenthau's hand-picked successor (Cy Vance Jr) for DA has 90%. Again we won't update again unless the outcome changes.
Update 9:45 - We may not know the results tonight as St. Lawrence County is reporting machine problems in four towns - we'll get other results, but if it's close, we might not know the full outcome until tomorrow.
Update 9:57 - Initial call in NYC mayoral race recinded. Count now 49% Mayor Mike 48% Thompson. Thompson has called Mike to concede, but only 32% of the vote is in.
Update 11:01 -- Race officially called for Mayor Mike. Again.
Update 7:05PM - Polls are closed but nobody has called it for McDonnell yet. Figured this one would be over already
Update 7:07 - MSNBC is reporting that only 10% of the voters under age 30 showed up. They're citing very low turnout in the DC suburbs. This means that the Obama supporters stayed home. Therefore, when "they" say that this was a referendum on Obama, it wasn't - it was the Sabato curse AND it was a lesson for blue dogs that running with the President is better than running against his policies, as Deeds did when he said if elected, he'd opt-out of health care reform.
Update 7:57 - MSNBC has called it for McDonnell. Just in time for NJ to close.
Update 8:52 - per VA Sec of State - with 76% of precincts reporting, turnout is only 30%.
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SOMETHING YOU WEREN'T FOLLOWING -- Possession of up to one ounce of marijuana is now decriminalized in Breckenridge, Colorado. Won with 72% of the vote. Ski trip, anyone?
By the time most of you read this, I'll already be at the polls. Here in Pennsylvania, the polls open at 7. This year, it won't be necessary to be there before 6:30. You may think that's early for an election where likely no more than 15% of the people will turn out in places without a "major" race, but precinct has a bunch of diehards, and for years we all like to have a real low stub number to take with us for the day.
I'll be there IN THE COLD with my local Democratic and Republican committeepeople. The candidates will all stop by.
WHAT A CHANGE from last year. First, last year was warm. Because there had been such a problem with signs being stolen, many of us were out around 3 in the morning checking for signs, replacing stolen ones, and staking additional ones up and down the ticket. We were set at some inhuman hour and STILL the diehards were already lining up. And it didn't matter, no one had slept in days, and we were all running on some combination of adrenaline and coffee.
Today will be much more quiet. After the pre-work rush, it will mostly be a bunch of political junkies talking local politics and greeting the people who can easily park their cars and step on up to vote. I'm looking forward to speaking with the local Republicans. I'm interested in their take on NY-23, co-option by the far right, and whether they plan to vote for Arlen or Toomey.
I'm probably not going to see the anger of last year. My pick fave was this towering guy with patrician features and preppy clothes to match. What we call around here "old Main Line". He came out of the polling building and decided to start yelling at me when I offered him an "I Voted" sticker so he could get a free Starbuck's coffee. He screamed so vehemently about the country going off a cliff that his pallor actually got a little pink. He ended with the accusation that Barack Obama was to the right of Saul Alinsky, and I couldn't know that because no one supporting Obama had finished high school. I was honestly able to say I had read Alinsky, and knew that Obama was nowhere near that far left. Can't WAIT to see HIM again.
I'll be tweeting anything of interest off my personal feed.
What will you be doing today? I hope you'll vote if there is an election where you are, and you are old enough to vote. I hope you'll talk to your local committeeperson and see how you can get involved with voter registration and 2010 GOTV efforts. Make sure your neighbors, friends, family and co-workers vote. Maybe someone wants to ride over with you...
Nearly half of all U.S. children and 90 percent of black youngsters will be on food stamps at some point during childhood, and fallout from the current recession could push those numbers even higher, researchers say.
The estimate comes from an analysis of 30 years of national data, and it bolsters other recent evidence on the pervasiveness of youngsters at economic risk. It suggests that almost everyone knows a family who has received food stamps, or will in the future, said lead author Mark Rank, a sociologist at Washington University in St. Louis.
Carve an extra hour out of your day to stop by your local food bank and make a donation of either cash or food. If you don't know where the nearest food bank is, Feeding America (which used to be called Second Harvest) has a tool (lower left of the page) to help you locate your local site. If you're really time-compressed, they have a donation page, too. I don't personally know what it is to be hungry. But I know people who have been. This is a problem we can help address as individuals: a bag of groceries here, a $25 check there -- if we all did it, millions of children and adults would not have to go to bed hungry.
Have a great day - we'll be here tonight with election returns and commentary.
I had hoped to get more posts up today, but already the day has gotten away from me, and I have last minute GOTV things to do. (If you know me, you know exactly what I mean...)
So -- if you've got any late breaking news on tomorrow's races, either use the comments or put up a post!
And please, take half an hour today and bang 10 doors in your neighborhood to remind people that tomorrow is election day.
If I can find some time, I'll get back to the Pelosi document -- sadly I'm only on page 400-and something.
By the way - if you only read the main page of DCW, you may have missed something we added. If you like one of our posts and want to easily share it with your friends, click on the title and you'll be on the same post, but off the main page. You can then use the little green widget at the top of the page to Tweet out the post. The widget also works for the posts on the side bars.
I know, I know, the most interesting race is the NY-23. Polling seems to indicate that it's a win for the wingnut branch of the GOP. Some may say that this isn't a win for the GOP, but it certainly is: with the support of the most established wingnut branch it is a gauntlet that says "you need to be Republican ENOUGH to win even a moderate Republican district." Next up on that dance card is the Texas gubernatorial primary. If Medina wins (and she won't) it will mean that even Rick Perry isn't right ENOUGH...
But there is a tiny election that I'm betting you know nothing about. It's also a Republican election, and involves a town with a Borough Council and a Mayor. Welcome to Bridgeport. No, NOT Bridgeport, Connecticut, the city that went bankrupt, rather the slightly over half a square mile town (land area) of about 4,000 people (about 2,600 registered voters) in Pennsylvania. To try to give you a sense of HOW SMALL this place is, and where it is, well, you've probably heard of King of Prussia, Pennsylvania. The town has one of the largest malls in the United States. If you drive north from KoP, and cross the west bridge, you're in Norristown, the Montgomery County seat. (As an aside, amoung the Montgomery County Supervisors are Joe Hoeffel, current candidate for PA governor, and Chris Matthews' brother Jim, a Republican.) If you take the parallel east bridge, you will spend between 5 and 7 minutes (depending on how you hit the Fourth Street traffic light) traveling before you enter Norristown. Most everyone thinks that little strip of in-and-out markets, row houses, Catholic Churches and the big funeral home are still part of King of Prussia. But no - it's a little place. Historically home to factory workers and other blue collar workers: modest but affordable houses. Very ethnic. Generally Republican, but in Joe Sestak's district. In addition, their State Senator is a progressive named Daylin Lynch, who is a conscientious and effective pol, and as an aside, during his off hours, one of the funniest people I know.
The election this year is council and mayor, in addition to the larger judicial races. The popular, multi-term mayor until 18 October was Jerry Nicola. He passed away (at age 71) too late to have his name removed from the ballot. He's still on it, and he very well might win. If so, the council will pick someone to fill out the two-year term. Next week, the council will pick the person to fill out the remaining two months of his current term. The two contenders are Eileen Nicola, Jerry's widow, and Ted Pruskowski, the other candidate for mayor. Ted is a lifelong Republican who lost the mayoral primary to Jerry on the Republican side, but won the Democratic primary. Ted is considered the young candidate, at 43. Eileen, by the way, is running for council in her own right.
Eileen barred Ted from Jerry's funeral, along with about half of the Borough council. Among the barred was Jack Kowal, acting mayor, council president, and chair of Ted's campaign.
So what's the issue?
It's not just local personal politics, although that's a small part of it, rather it's about a six block stretch of Fourth Street. And trust me, they are NOT big blocks. Bridgeport is a poor town of rowhouses. The giant factories are for the most part all gone, although there is a little bit of new (last 15 years) business in the big factory area at the end of Fourth Street, before it curves over toward the river. There's not a lot of tax base to speak of, and the population is old. Rather, let's be politically correct and point out that the median age is higher than in many towns in Pennsylvania, which already has one of the highest median ages in the country.
Ted wants to develop Fourth Street, and bring in high tech and any other business he can. Many of Jerry's supporters feel that would diminish the "feel" of the town.
We'll know in 48 hours who wins.
As an aside which has NOTHING to do with politics, one of the neat things on Fourth Street is a place called Suzy Jo's. They make, in my estimation, the very best donuts in the world. I'm not much of a donut person: I probably eat 2 or 3 of them a year. But these things are actual works of art. I've never seen cream sticks or bing cherry donuts anywhere else...and warm, they are worth eating junk food for.
You might have noticed that your neighborhood looks different this morning, as compared to last Friday. There are probably now a whole bunch of signs for the various candidates and ballot issues which will be on November's ballots around the country.
In most communities, there are local laws restricting election signs to the 30-day period prior to the election, and so this was the weekend that they went out. Since this is not an overly contentious year in most places, the majority of the signs will likely make it to election day.
Local candidates generally don't advertise on TV, unless "local" is a huge place, like "Mayor of New York City". Normally, though, the elections are run on a shoestring and advertising is relegated to emails, door hangars, signs and the like. They stay up for the month unless you live in a transitional neighborhood. I'm not talking economic transition, I'm talking blue-to-red or red-to-blue. In those cases, the party losing stature has been known to go out and steal signs.
During the next month, there will be debates and candidate forums in YOUR neighborhood. If you don't know who is running, or you want to hear the candidates, contact your local party organization, and they'll let you know when and where. If you don't know how to contact your local party, drop a note to the address in the left side bar, with your zip code, and I'll send you their email address and phone number. While you're on the phone with them, offer to work the polls. It's too late to be a county/city poll worker, but not too late to give an hour on election day to greet voters. You can be a greeter for the party or for a specific candidate.
If you've never been a greeter, you should try it. It's actually fun. It's a great experience if you've got kids over the age of 6 or 7 - they get a kick out of it too, and it helps to imprint on them how important voting truly is. You stand outside and offer sample ballots, say hi to neighbors you know, meet new neighbors and the like.
A lot of people don't care about elections as much as they care about the races. That is, like gamblers following the spread on the games, it's more about projecting winners and the contest, than the actual candidates and what gets accomplished after the votes are counted. It's one of the reasons people don't care about the local elections: no polling, little buzz.
But these elections MATTER - your local schools, taxes, and issues. In my neighborhood there is a guy running for school board who wants to see creationism taught as science in the public schools, one of four such candidates in the county. There's another guy who wants to organize deer hunts in the local park. One woman running for supervisor would do a really great job in terms of voting for better expenditures than the man she'd be replacing: he ran on a "no new taxes" platform, and then voted for a lot of storm water abatement programs which were not needed, but benefited a friend of his.
Your vote matters more in a local election than in a larger election: fewer people vote, so your vote carries more weight.
I've been following the news of the #IranElection all weekend. Two major things strike me: first, the parallels to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the freeing of Eastern Europe. Back in 1989, when the wall came down, we talked about how the fax machine was instrumental in helping to coordinate things. You couldn't tap a fax, like a government could a phone line, it wasn't necessary to meet with someone to get information from one point to another. Certainly, there were many other political and temporal things involved, but you can't overlook how technology played a part.
Similarly, the use of Twitter has been instrumental in getting information around, even as the Iranian government has attempted to squelch communications.
The second point relates to elections themselves. Although we don't have "real" data, it appears that there was 80% turnout, which is remarkable. And wonderful. And I wish we could do it here. But still, the results are contested, and are likely untrue in terms of who the government is claiming as the winner.
I've been in meetings over the last few weeks about local election events over the summer and into the fall. While many people are exclusively focused on the "big" elections of 2010, we locals still have elections to work this year for the row offices. There will be a lot of door knocking: I'll be following two separate local candidates around, clipboard in hand, in case we run into any unregistered voters. In addition, there will be registration drives this fall, and I'm pleased to say that we'll be having candidates (for this year and next, some new, some already in office) as well as "surprise local celebrities" standing with us.
Which brings me back to Iran. One of the things that we say to people who are hesitant to register to vote because they believe their vote doesn't matter is that the United States is the only country in the history of the world with free scheduled elections, and the bloodless transfer of power. Every first Tuesday after the first Monday in November since 1789.
When we have contested elections, we recount the ballots. We make sure that there are people from all sides watching the procedures. Sometimes, we go to court. We make use of technology in ways that help, without fear of reprisal. We can put voter and supporter lists onto computers without fear that the police will confiscate them. We can call people without fear of being tapped. And too often, we take these things for granted.
When I see riot police because of an election outcome, its a good reminder that while our system may be in some ways imperfect, it is the best in the world. And once we settle out the primary calendars for 2012, and the new CDs predicated on a Census that will hopefully be taken after Groves is confirmed, and make a few other adjustments, it will be even better. Still, more than 200 years of free, scheduled, elections, with no coups, and no bloodshed is a record no one else has ever come close to.
As was the case with Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa, I have now completed a massive county-by-county study of the results of the 2008 General Election for Colorado. This is the most intensive analysis to date and there is also a good deal of important supplementary material that comes with it.
President Obama, who won the state of Colorado with a near-landslide +8.95% margin, is the first Democratic candidate to win the state since 1992 and the second since 1964. He won 26 counties, 7 of which were pick-ups. 3 of those pick-ups are counties in the population rich central/north-central portion of the state, known as the „Denver-Aurora-Boulder Combined Statistical Area“, which has increased in population by 14.03% since 2000 and in which 61.07% of all Coloradans live. Two of those pick-ups are two of the four largest counties in Colorado:
Arapahoe County, pop. Approximately 545,100, county seat: Littleton
Jefferson County, pop. approximately 529,400, county seat: Golden
Most importantly, these two counties are known for their military and aerospace presence in the state and have not gone for a Democrat since 1964. This is proof positive that President Obama captured a good chunk of the military vote in Colorado. The only mega-county in Colorado that remained faithful to the GOP was El Paso county, where the GOP's winning margin was cut-in half from 2004.
In a nutshell:
1.) Obama set a new Colorado raw vote record for a candidate of any party: 1,288,576 votes, 187,321 votes more than Bush's record-breaking raw vote from 2004. The Democratic party's jump of 286,844 votes from 2004 to 2008 is also the largest jump in the state's history. The state's growth rate over 2004 was 12.72%, 5.27% above the national 7.48% growth rate.
2.) Obama won with the 6th largest winning margin, the 5th largest percent, partisan shift and partisan value in Iowa's democratic electoral history. This places him in the middle of the rankings.
I've divided the information into three parts, and that data is after the jump.
Tomorrow is the Pennsylvania primary. Last year, people couldn't stop talking about it. This year, it's flying so far under the radar that we'll be lucky to break 15% turnout.
In general, primaries are for party activists. The "regular folks" neither know, nor care, that there is a primary.
In most places, most off-year elections are for row officers. Sometimes there are higher positions, for example, the gubernatorial primaries this cycle in Virginia and Jersey. But mostly, mayors, township supervisors, election officials, judges, clerks, coroners, controllers/treasurers, etc. We have all of that here, along with some of the judges. So I'm looking at my sample ballot, pulled off the county web site, and I notice that we've been unable to fill out our slate. Worse, since a lot of the positions cross file (like the school board positions) you can't tell who is a member of which party. In a perfect world, it shouldn't matter: the old "let the best man win" thing. But it does matter, because row offices often feed to state offices, and from there to Congress.
I have a long-standing battle with the local Democrats. They are of the opinion that if they run good people, those candidates will get elected. I believe that if you organize people well enough, you can elect anyone. And yes, I understand that we don't want to elect morons, and that the truth lies somewhere in between. But if nothing else, it should be incumbent on the local party to tell the voters of that party which candidates are members of that party.
A post card, or an email, would have been nice. Something that said the local Democratic Party endorsed a slate of candidates. Or even information on who is running and what their positions are on local issues.
Now, I am considered an activist, so I'm able to look at my sample ballot and actually know some of the people: I've met them, spoken with them (and in one case, argued with him, because of a position he holds on hunting deer about 50 yards from my back door). Plus, I know that the League of Women Voters has information on all the candidates.
But most people don't know anything about the candidates, and therefore cannot make an informed choice, if in fact they vote tomorrow.
It saddens me, because so long as people only care about the Presidential election, and maybe a Senate race, it's hard to get good people to pay some early dues, learn the system, and build on that experience as they seek higher office. Most voters don't care who is on the school board until the national news points out that their school board has voted to teach creationism as science. They don't correlate township boards/city councils with local services and values. And it all starts with the primaries.
President Obama won the state of Indiana last year with the leanest margin for a democratic candidate since 1856. The most interesting part is that the partisan shift from his win is the third highest in democratic history and the difference between the partisan shift in Indiana, and that of the nation for 2008 is the largest positive difference for a democratic candidate in US history.
Comparatively, for FDR in 1932, the difference was a negative value, which means that Indiana did not help FDR get to his national +35.18% partisan shift, but was rather, a drag on it. This time around, it is the opposite. the +21.71% partisan shift in Indiana was a major contributing factor in Obama's +9.73% partisan shift over 2004. This partisan shift is especially stunning when we consider how bitterly divided and, for all intents and purposes, landlocked, the electorate has become over the last 16 years. highest of the nine cycles in which a democratic candidate picked-up the state.
There is a lot of interesting information contained in an analysis of the counties, and it has far reaching ramifications for both the Democrats and the GOP in future elections. I've divided the information into three parts, and that data is after the jump.
Pretty ugly for the Democrats. If these numbers hold, the internecine warfare of the tea baggers and the rest of the GOP won't matter. 
By the time most of you read this, I'll already be at the polls. Here in Pennsylvania, the polls open at 7. This year, it won't be necessary to be there before 6:30. You may think that's early for an election where likely no more than 15% of the people will turn out in places without a "major" race, but precinct has a bunch of diehards, and for years we all like to have a real low stub number to take with us for the day. 
You might have noticed that your neighborhood looks different this morning, as compared to last Friday. There are probably now a whole bunch of signs for the various candidates and ballot issues which will be on November's ballots around the country.
