It's looking more and more evident each day that the 2012 Republican Nomination is in the bag for Mitt Romney. Even Gingrich's main money-man is saying he should drop out. Rick and Mitt will trade wins until Santorum yields to inevitability and drops out.
So let's call Mitt Romney the Republican nominee. Does he have a chance to win in November or have the primaries done too much harm to his brand? Using our Ultimate Republican Nomination Info Chart I created a map showing the results of the 2008 election and added the results of this year's Republican primaries and caucuses. (While Santorum won Missouri I left it blank because delegates allocation is not yet settled.)
It's not too hard to see where I'm going with this. Romney has only won 4 of his 17 victories in states that McCain won in 2008. Those 4 wins amount to only 21 electoral votes in November. All of his other victories were in states that Barack Obama won. Mitt will be fighting more to win the Republican base's confidence than for independent voters. And if he's not able to gain the support of the hardcore conservatives will he take down down-ballot candidates with him? I can't imagine Republicans in the Deep South will be energized to vote for a candidate they don't believe in.
Should the Obama campaign push the fact that Obamacare was modeled after Romneycare in Republican leaning areas?