TS Isaac given 2% chance of causing Tampa evacuation

by: Matt

Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 22:03:24 PM EDT

Is 2% a really small chance, or are we up to a small chance?

TD 9 (now TS Isaac) is a threat to affect Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30. I blogged about the climatological chances of a hurricane causing an evacuation of Tampa during the convention in a post last week, putting the odds at 0.2%. The odds in the current situation are higher, probably near 2%. It would take a "perfect storm" sort of conditions to all fall in place to bring TD 9 to the doorstep of Tampa as a hurricane during the convention, but that is one of the possibilities the models have been suggesting could happen.