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A 2012 Electoral Map Forecast

by: Leah

Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 20:54:46 PM EDT


The map ON THE LINK BELOW is based on data from the Intrade prediction market, where individuals place wagers on the outcome of the 2012 Presidential election in each state. The states remaining dark gray have no betting data currently available. The darker the shade of blue or red, the more likely that party will carry the state. Hover over any state for details. 


Note: the Democrat total doesn't include Illinois ("no Intrade data") and that's 20 electoral votes which would give Obama 283 and the election!

Leah :: A 2012 Electoral Map Forecast

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also (0.00 / 0)
For what its worth, MD, DC, VT, and RI are also grey which is another 20 EVs for Obama.  The rest of the greys are Republican states.  Hawaii seems to be blue, but if you hover over it it says 50% probable for Obama which makes me doubt all the states[it should be closer to 99%]...

Problem (0.00 / 0)

The comments about the grey states and some of the other states is part of the problem with these markets as predictors.

A small number of contrarians can temporarily greatly distort the market (just as speculators temporarily distorted the oil market).  Until enough others invest to take advantage of the ludicrous odds being created by the speculators, the odds are out of whack with any rational view of the likely outcome.

well, to go with in trade, we have the rightwing, but fairly honest poll aggregator giving us 253 to 117 (0.00 / 0)

and that leaves 158 of which Obama looks strong in a good bit of that. I dont want to sound over confident, nor do i think any democrat or progressive ought to sit this one out, just saying it is extremely winnable.




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