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Senate Forecast - September 1 update

by: Matt

Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 10:00:00 AM EDT


Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

Senate Forecast: 54.6 (-4.4), down from July's 55.2. (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). And things just remain ugly.

And the forecasts based mostly or solely on polls, Daily Kos and 538, look the worse.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

A little housekeeping: Chris Bowers has moved his forecasts from Open Left to Daily Kos, so they are now so shown. Also, we are now using the actual race-by-race forecasts from Daily Kos and 538, and converting them into categories. 35-65% is a T, and becomes 0.5; and 11-34% or 66-89% is a Lean, and becomes .2 or .8 as appropriate. But I personally think their methodologies significantly underestimates the chances of someone behind 4-6 points in a poll to win.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.

Sources: DCW, SSP. Rothenberg, Cook, CQ, CrystalBall, Daily Kos, 538

DemConWatch
Senate Forecast
  Current/Avg. DCW SSP Cook Rothenberg CQ CrystalBall 538 Daily Kos  
  8/29/10 7/27/10 8/5/10 8/24/10 8/20/10 8/12/10 8/25/10 8/18/10  
Dem-Strong 17 14 8 7 8 7 7 8 8  
Dem-Lean 1 3 1 0 1 3 1 4  
Tossup 7 9 13 12 13 7 5 1  
Rep-Lean 1 3 2 3 1 7 6 3  
Rep-Strong 19 13 13 13 13 14 12 16 20  
Dem '10 Projection 14.6 18.5 15.5 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.3 12.5 12.3  
Dem '12/'14 Seats 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40  
Dem Senate Projection 54.6 58.5 55.5 54.7 54.6 54.5 54.3 52.5 52.3  
Dem-Gain -4.4 -0.5 -3.5 -4.3 -4.4 -4.5 -4.7 -6.5 -6.7  
                     
HI (Inouye) D D D D D D D D D  
MD (Mikulski) D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Gillibrand) D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Schumer) D D D D D D D D D  
OR (Wyden) D D D D D D D D D  
VT (Leahy) D D D D D D D D D  
WV (Open) D D D D D D D D D  
CT (Open) D D D DL D DL DL D D  
WA (Murray) D D DL T T T DL T DL  
WI (Feingold) D D DL T T T DL DL RL  
CA (Boxer) D D DL T T T T T DL  
NV (Reid) D D T T T T T T DL  
FL (Open) R D T T T T T T T  
IL (Open) D T T T T T T T DL  
PA (Open) D D T T T T T RL R  
CO (Bennet) D DL T T T T T RL RL  
OH (Open) R T T T T T T RL R  
KY (Open) R T T T T T RL RL R  
NH (Open) R T T T RL T RL RL R  
MO (Open) R RL T T T T RL R R  
IN (Open) D T RL RL T T RL R R  
NC (Burr) R T RL R R R RL RL RL  
AR (Lincoln) D R R T RL RL R R R  
LA (Vitter) R T R RL R R RL R R  
DE (Open) D R RL R RL R RL R R  
AK (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
AL (Shelby) R R R R R R R R R  
AZ (McCain) R R R R R R R R R  
GA (Isakson) R R R R R R R R R  
IA (Grassley) R R R R R R R R R  
ID (Crapo) R R R R R R R R R  
KS (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
ND (Open) D R R R R R R R R  
OK (Coburn) R R R R R R R R R  
SC (DeMint) R R R R R R R R R  
SD (Thune) R R R R R R R R R  
UT (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
                     
Matt :: Senate Forecast - September 1 update

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the chart (0.00 / 0)
The chart seems to assume that the Democrats currently have 60 seats.  I'm sure it's just a typo somewhere.  My guess is that when you moved WV into the chart you forgot to subtract it from 12/14.

Fixed (0.00 / 0)
thanks for catching it. Yes, it was caused by adding WV. The overall average was correct - just the numbers in the chart itself were off.

[ Parent ]
Alaska (0.00 / 0)
I think Alaska should be considered RL now, but no one in the above chart has moved it yet.

It looks like Murkowski can't run as a Libertarian, so the odds are increasing that she'll stay out of it.

And the most recent poll from Rasmussen has a lot of good news for McAndrews: only down by 6%, and a 22 point (!) lead with independents. If Murkowski does not endorse Miller, this could get very interesting very quickly.


Changing a State v Changing a Forecast (0.00 / 0)
Putting "the forecast" together is often done once a month. It's more time consuming than you might think. Most sites do it that way, and tweak individual races throughout the month.

As elections get closer, the time frame shortens -- so this is Labour Day weekend, and people will start polling more and polls will change more -- "excitement factor" rises.

Just saying -- up until now, it was easier and more expedient to look at all the races once a month.  


[ Parent ]
NC also (0.00 / 0)
I'm surprised the bug 3 (Cook, Rothenberg, CQ) still have this as an R, even though the polls are showing a closer race - and the poll based forecasts, 538 and DK both have it as RL. I would love for Rothenberg and CQ to justify AR as RL and NC as R.

Matt (0.00 / 0)
I just want to point out that I pegged that as a toss-up in November of 2008.  

[ Parent ]
Absoloutely (0.00 / 0)
And the race has a lot of parallels to 2008, where Hagen came from behind to win easily. Yes it's a Republican year, but it's also an anti-incumbent year, and the polls are showing a single-digit race.

[ Parent ]
Updates (0.00 / 0)
Cook has moved WV D->DL, AR and OH T->RL. He moves from 54.7 to 53.9.

CQ has also moved OH to RL. CQ goes to 54.2.

Bowers has also updated, but his rankings are so sensitive to polling changes that they just jump around too much.

Overall average goes to 54.5


More updates (0.00 / 0)
Crystal Ball has made a number of changes, all trending red:

WV: D->DL
WA, WI: DL->T
CO, OH, PA: T->RL
IN, LA: RL->R

CB drops from 54.2 to 52.2, and the overall average drops to 54.2.


[ Parent ]
Rothenberg update (0.00 / 0)
AR: RL-> R
IN: T->R

Rothenberg goes from 54.6 to 53.9, and the overall average drops to 54.1


[ Parent ]
two questions (0.00 / 0)
http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITI...

CNN Poll: GOP's midterm advantage is growing
By the CNN Wire Staff
September 6, 2010 7:58 a.m. EDT
"Independents and voters who dislike both parties are starting to break toward the GOP," says CNN's Keating Holland.

(CNN) -- With November's midterm elections less than two months away, a new national poll indicates that the Republicans' advantage over the Democrats in the battle for Congress is on the rise.

According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday, the GOP leads the Democrats by 7 points on the "generic ballot" question, 52 percent to 45 percent. That 7-point advantage is up from a 3-point margin last month.

The generic ballot question asks respondents if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district, without naming any specific candidates.

does the generic ballot tell us anything? and can this, or even the more specific trends posted on demconwatch be reversed in 60 days?


Here's a good analysis (0.00 / 0)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...

To summarize, a 3% lead leads to a GOP takeover. A 7% lead would give them 231 seats. This is based on a formula that takes other factors into account, like how many open seats there are. The error on the regression is 5-9 seats, so a 7% lead pretty much secures a GOP majority.

And the CNN survey is for registered voters. If a likely voter sampling gave us 10%, things will be really bad.

Now can the trends be reversed? That's a very different question. Probably not significantly at this point. But can the Democrats target specific districts to try to save the majority? That's the focus at this point.


[ Parent ]


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