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South Carolina Update

by: DocJess

Mon Jun 14, 2010 at 06:00:00 AM EDT


Statement by the Vic Rawl for US Senate Campaign

“South Carolinians would rather be 100% right than 90% uncertain.”

As we stated yesterday, our campaign began examining election data on early Wednesday morning. Over the course of the next 24 hours, our staff found several results that seemed unusual to us. We stress that, then and now, we very much hope that Tuesday’s primary was conducted fairly and that nothing untoward happened.

Expert Data Analysis

No one on our staff is a statistics expert or mathematician. As the unusual information began to accumulate, several unconnected people and teams who are far more expert in election forensics than our staff contacted the campaign and volunteered to look at results from Tuesday’s primary.

One of the teams was Dr. Walter Mebane of the University of Michigan and Dr. Michael Miller of Cornell University. Dr. Mebane is a professor of political science and statistics and a recognized expert in detecting election fraud. As of August 2010, Dr. Miller will be professor of political science at the University of Illinois, Springfield, and specializes in the analysis of election data.  Neither is affiliated with the Rawl campaign.

Dr. Mebane performed second-digit Benford's law tests on the precinct returns from the Senate race.  The test compares the second digit of actual precinct vote totals to a known numeric distribution of data that results from election returns collected under normal conditions.  If votes are added or subtracted from a candidate’s total, possibly due to error or fraud, Mebane’s test will detect a deviation from this distribution.

Results from Mebane’s test showed that Rawl’s Election Day vote totals depart from the expected distribution at 90% confidence.  In other words, the observed vote pattern for Rawl could be expected to occur only about 10% of the time by chance.  “The results may reflect corrupted vote counts, but they may also reflect the way turnout in the election covaried with the geographic distribution of the candidates' support,” Mebane said.

Dr. Miller performed additional tests to determine whether there was a significant difference in the percentage of absentee and Election Day votes that each candidate received.  The result in the Senate election is highly statistically significant: Rawl performs 11 percentage points better among absentee voters than he does among Election Day voters.  “This difference is a clear contrast to the other races.  Statistically speaking, the only other Democratic candidate who performed differently among the two voter groups was Robert Ford, who did better on Election Day than among absentees in the gubernatorial primary,” Miller said.

These findings concern the campaign, and should concern all of South Carolina. We do not know that anything was done by anyone to tamper with Tuesday’s election, or whether there may have been innocuous machine malfunctions, and we are promoting no theories about either possibility.

However, we do feel that further investigation is warranted.

Voting Machine Examination

With that in mind, another expert volunteer traveled today to the SC State Board of Elections in Columbia to conduct an examination of selected voting machines that were employed in Tuesday’s election. When we have the results, if any, of that examination, we will release them immediately.

Gathering of Anecdotal Accounts

While we believe, and urge others to note that “the plural of anecdote is not data,” our campaign is receiving calls and e-mails from people – voters and poll workers – who experienced significant problems with voting for whom they intended. We are looking into these reports and will release any information we find.

Judge Rawl and the campaign stress again that no one knows exactly what happened on Election Day. South Carolinians would rather be 100% right than 90% uncertain.

The South Carolina Law Enforcement Division (SLED) began an investigation on Friday afternoon into the election. Likely it will center on the statistical anomolies details in the Rawl press release.

People keep asking why would someone bother to knock Vic Rawl out of the race? An internal poll for the Raw campaign showed a DeMint-Rawl match-up at 50%-43%, which is pretty good considering Rawl is a virtual unknown outside of political circle. (Or was, it's likely he's much better known in South Carolina now.) Even according to PPP, DeMint wasn't a shoe-in against Rawl.

What chance does Greene have? Well, it's now a sure thing for DeMint if Greene stays the challenger. He's going to have a lot of trouble proving where that $10,000 filing fee came from. He SAVED it over 2 years? That would mean that he saved about $100/week consistently for two years. The max you can make in South Carolina on unemployment is $326/week. Seems tough. There will be bank records: when he filed, he used a personal check, there are records of deposits. There is an issue of him never filing with the FEC. Plus that pesky morals charge. Amazingly, a sex conviction won't keep you out of Congress, but it's a no-no for any South Carolina state elected office. Plus, he's created a lot of bad blood amoungst the Democrats: it will be hard for him to garner any logistics or financial help. Greene's candidacy made sure that DeMint would win re-election: he is at best a spoiler.

I have always contended that US Senator is not an entry-level position, and I still hold to that. There are rare, exceptional people, who have spent their lives related to politics in some way, but they are the exception. I'm thinking of Al Franken, with his polisci degree from Harvard, and a life dedicated to a lot of political comedy, which actually DOES require understanding politics. Not some young man who just "feels like it".

DocJess :: South Carolina Update

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The other races (0.00 / 0)
One possibility that has not been discussed a lot is that this race may have been a side-effect of other skulduggery.

Consider the following completely hypothetical scenario:

  1. Some standard "dirty trick" gets Greene the filing fee, with no expectation that he'd win.
  2. A lone amateur decides to hack the machines and change one of the other races. He or she finds a way to do it that adds votes (rather than changes it).
  3. The amateur figures it's too suspicious to just add tens of thousands of votes in the race they'd like to affect, so they also add votes to other races, in a proportion that seems reasonable.
  4. The amateur goofs on the Rawl-Greene race, and gives the extra votes disproportionately to Greene.
  5. The Benford's Law violation is random. There are ways to add votes that don't violate Benford's Law. And, frankly, a 10% violation is ridiculously weak--there were on the order of ten races in this South Carolina election, so we should not be surprised if one or two of them show a violation.

This would be a series of coincidences, but that's the kind of thing that often gets criminals caught. The "key break" sometimes turns out to be due to an unrelated crime that just happens to point investigators in the right direction.

Or here's an alternative scenario: replace 2-4 with a straight malfunction of the machines or the count.

Either way, I consider other SC results to be suspect until this is resolved. That's not for any partisan reason or because I have any race in mind. It just seems prudent when there is a possibility of hacking or malfunction to consider the whole system to be possibly compromised until the questions are resolved.


The money (0.00 / 0)
I see no reason to think that the money was not his.

Alvin Greene was receiving a military paycheck for many years (he is not married and has no kids to support).

The last nine months after leaving the military he has been living with his father and older brother, James Jr., in his father's house and probably not paying any rent.

His father/family is not poor. His father, James Greene, retired from the Clemson Extension Program where he used to teach, also at one time he was a barber and a nightclub owner.   And James Jr., is a 47-year-old corrections officer at Wateree correctional facility.



[ Parent ]
5. (4.00 / 1)
The Benford's Law violation is random. There are ways to add votes that don't violate Benford's Law. And, frankly, a 10% violation is ridiculously weak--there were on the order of ten races in this South Carolina election, so we should not be surprised if one or two of them show a violation.

I don't think this criticism is valid.  They weren't trolling the data looking for any abnormality.  They had the initial hypothesis that something was wrong with this particular race and they analyzed this particular race.


[ Parent ]
Absentee Voters (0.00 / 0)
I would credit the absentee voters with being slightly more discerning. That might explain the 11% difference.


Some facts (0.00 / 0)
DocJess said:
.... where that $10,000 filing fee came from. He SAVED it over 2 years? That would mean that he saved about $100/week consistently for two years. The max you can make in South Carolina on unemployment is $326/week.

But the facts are:

1) Greene has only been out of the military for the past NINE months.  (He has not been unemployed for two years.)
2) Greene stated in an interview he decided to run for the senate two years ago while in Korea. (We don't know how much money he had already saved up until that time.)
3) Greene stated in an interview that the money he used for the filing fee was from the money he saved while he was in the military.  
4) Greene never said the filing fee came from his unemployment check.  
5) Greene stated in an interview that he was able to 'buy gasoline to travel around South Carolina' from his unemployment checks.

Greene has done videoed interviews for ABC, CNN, MSNBC, FoxNews, and various local ones.  Anyone that wants to fact check what I've posted can go watch 'all' of them since I don't have a summary of which statements came from which interview ;)


I am a bit surprised. (0.00 / 0)
You are stating "Facts" with no references really, which is not normal for you.  
This situation is more than strange to put it mildly.
But of course that is my opinion.

I guess you accept it as "OK".
I have not see where Greene traveled to campaign to go out and "Get the vote".  
Do you know where I could find that info?


[ Parent ]
jean (0.00 / 0)
What's listed above is  'the fact that Greene stated those things' in interviews that he has given that are taped/on video. Now if what he said is factually true or not, who knows.

Here's a few links of the VIDEO interviews, you can do a search on Google or Yahoo for 'Alvin Greene interview video' to find the other ones.  Enjoy!

CNN Don Lemmon interviews Alvin Greene: Run time: 06:02
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

MSNBC Keith Olbermann interviews Alvin Greene: Run time: 07:33
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

ABC interview of Alvin Greene:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics...

FoxNews interview of Alvin Greene:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

PubliuSC interview of Alvin Greene:  Run time: 06:43
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

WLTX interview of Alvin Greene: Run time: 11:14
http://www.wltx.com/news/story...

TPM:  http://tpmlivewire.talkingpoin...

p.s. One of the reporters did ask Greene 'where' he went when he was campaigning in South Carolina and Greene said 'all over', he did not state names of cities/towns.



[ Parent ]
Videos (0.00 / 0)
I haven't seen all of the interviews, but I heartily recommend the CNN one, starting about 3:55 in. Greene's got a nice giggle -- and he doesn't seem to be too sure of his answers. I especially like his use of the term "knucklehead".

We all know candidates need to be able to give interviews, they need to be able to make speeches, and they need to be able to answer questions coherently (okay, except Shrub and Quayle). Greene cannot do these things: he not only sounds intellectually limited, but he doesn't know the basic about changing the question in your answer. For example, he's said that he knows more jobs are needed in South Carolina. A valid point. Lemon asked him about two SC legislators who think Greene is nuts. Instead of answering "I don't really care what they think, I believe that SC needs jobs, and here's my plan for bringing jobs to our state." he asked who they were, OBVIOUSLY didn't know them from Adam, giggled and said "they're the knuckleheads"

He doesn't give interviews as much as he hems and haws.

Greene saying he campaigned "all over" South Carolina is actually a line lifted from that bastion of intellect, Spunky, who, when asked which newspapers and magazines she read said "all of them."  


[ Parent ]
Also this one (0.00 / 0)
This one has a bunch of info in it.

eTV The Big Picture interviews Alvin Greene: Run time 9:56
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

.



[ Parent ]
And a new one (0.00 / 0)
06-14-2010

Mark Levin interviews Alvin Greene Part 1 of 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Mark Levin interviews Alvin Greene Part 2 of 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
.


[ Parent ]
OK (0.00 / 0)
He could of saved money over 2 years as a low ranking individual in the Army but that does not sound reasonable.
$10,000 is a lot on these pay scales.

He was discharged Honorably but it was Involuntary.  And he also mentioned he had the same problem in the Airforce????????  Then of course there is the "Sex" whatever you want to call it.  He will not answer any questions in reference to these statements he had previously acknowledged existed.  Why?

This is basic.  Does anyone remember the movie Forrest Gump????????????????????????????????????????  Who do you think has more integrity?


[ Parent ]
Huh? (0.00 / 0)
Why are you limiting his savings to two years? I don't understand that.  He could have been saving his money for ten years or more, no one knows.
The only thing that Greene has stated regarding 'two years ago' is that is when he was stationed in Korea and decided he wanted to run in the senate race.

Regarding Ms. McCoy, the accuser in the porn charge, here is a video of her interview on FoxNews:

I think the charge will ultimately be dropped. It has been said that kind of charge is 'very rare'. Also, the girl/woman was over 18 years old, the 'porn' photo was only a man & woman (not child or bestiality).  And I think that her comment of saying Greene was 'a pretty big boy' (in article below) is something that Greene's lawyer could use against her in court, along with the fact that she seemed to overreact to the situation. She also said that "she really wasn't looking" (in the video above) - so basically it could have just been a naked man & woman - who gets upset about that nowadays?

From TPM:

An expert in obscenity law tells TPMmuckraker that the statute being used to prosecute South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Alvin Greene for allegedly showing a college student porn is on the books in every state but is almost never enforced.
 Full article here:  http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi...

From HuffPost:

Camille McCoy, a 19-year-old rising sophomore at the University of South Carolina, said she called campus police after Greene sat down next to her in a computer lab and asked her to look at his screen, which showed a pornographic website.

"I said, 'That's offensive,' and he sat there laughing," said McCoy, who was 18 at the time. "It was very disgusting. He said, 'Let's go to your room now.' It was kind of scary. He's a pretty big boy. He could've overpowered me."

 Full article here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
.



[ Parent ]
So you endorse Greene (0.00 / 0)
To each their own. With the other information given I do not feel he is a viable candidate. You obviously think this is a important political cause to support.

Please make note I did not know what the "Sex" thing was and I really do not care.  

In reference for "how long he saved", I also think that is unreasonable.  He is not working and living at home with his dad???????????  AND he does not have a website and no there was hardly any campaigning and that is being generous.  

Education for a Senator is nice to have.


[ Parent ]
NO (0.00 / 0)
I have NEVER said I endorse Greene.
All I have been doing is researching what is going on with the Greene issue and posting what I've found.
I am playing detective and looking for clues  ;)

I have read other people in various locations theorize that perhaps Greene has mild autism or a military/brain injury, etc.  

I think that he's 'not all there'.

Hopefully his family will talk him into dropping out of the race soon.

How on earth anyone could think that I 'support' him is beyond me.



[ Parent ]
Does anyone know? (0.00 / 0)
Trying to figure out about how much money Greene would have been making in the army.

Anyone here know about military pay?

Greene was a supply specialist (with a four year BA degree in political science) and spent an unknown about of time in Korea.

1) Specialist (abbreviated "SPC") is one of the four junior enlisted ranks in the U.S. Army, just above Private First Class and equivalent in pay grade to Corporal. Unlike Corporals, Specialists are not considered junior non-commissioned officers (NCO).

2) New recruits enlisting into the United States Army who have earned a four-year degree, and as of 2006 those with civilian-acquired job skills, will enter as a Specialist.[1] Typically, newly recruited Officer Candidates hold the rank of Specialist when enlisted and during BCT/AIT (Basic Combat Training, Advanced Individual Training) prior to their official enrollment into OCS (Officer Candidate School) they will be granted a Pay Grade of E-5 (as of early 2009) but hold a rank of Officer Candidate (OC), not a Sergeant (SGT).

3) Pay grade E-4 , Corporal  * Specialist

So what does an E-4 make per year? Or E-5?

Also, of note:  Korea Area Incentive Program

KAIP typically pays a member $300 (taxable) extra per month for every month that they are in Korea. Over a 2 year tour, this can amount to an extra $7,200. Some units may allow a member to renew KAIP for a third year. Typically, if a member gains accompanied status (called command sponsorship), then their regular tour is extended to 2 years. If they sign up for KAIP then it becomes a 3 year tour.

Common Allowances

   * Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH)

   * Basic Allowance for Subsistence (BAS): BAS is meant to offset costs for a member's meals. This allowance is based in the historic origins of the military in which the military provided room and board (or rations) as part of a member's pay. This allowance is not intended to offset the costs of meals for family members.

Beginning on January 1, 2002, all enlisted members received full BAS, but paid for their meals (including those provided by the government). It was the culmination of the BAS Reform transition period.

Because BAS is intended to provide meals for the service member, its level is linked to the price of food. Therefore, each year it is adjusted based upon the increase of the price of food as measured by the USDA food cost index. This is why the increase to BAS will not necessarily be the same percentage as that applied to the increase in the pay table, as annual pay raises are linked to the increase of private sector wages. As of 2010, enlisted members receive $323.87; warrant officers and commissioned officers receive $223.04 per month.

   * Clothing allowance: Comes to most members on an annual basis to buy and replace required uniforms. The amount varies by service and rank. (Typically, commissioned officers receive no clothing replacement allowance.)

Looks like Greene could have had a pretty good pay check in the military and, if he had lived frugally, could have easily saved quite a bit of his moolah  ;)


Where are you Ed (0.00 / 0)
He obviously does not own a home and lives with his dad  and I know allowances. He probally lived on base. He was a E 4.  
I am done with this and with his frugal living I am sure he lived on base.  This has gotten way to silly for me.
Wow, just had a earthquake and actually felt it.  House is good. I hate it when this happens:)  Later.

BASIC ALLOWANCE for HOUSING (BAH)
Frequently Asked Questions
UPDATED: 13-January-2010

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Q1: Who is eligible for BAH?

A member assigned to permanent duty within the 50 United States, who is not furnished government housing, is eligible for a Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH), based on the member's dependency status at the permanent duty station ZIP Code. A member stationed overseas (except in Hawai'i and Alaska), including U.S. territories and possessions, who is not furnished government housing, is eligible for an Overseas Housing Allowance (OHA) based on the member's dependency status. If a member (except for a member paying child support) is serving an UNACCOMPANIED overseas tour, the member is eligible for BAH at the 'with-dependent' rate, based on the dependent's U.S. residence ZIP Code, plus FSH at the OCONUS PDS, if the member is not furnished government housing overseas.

 


[ Parent ]
Earthquake (0.00 / 0)
Glad to hear you and your house are okay!

Seen these on Twitter:

BreakingNews  5.9 earthquake recorded in Southern California, near border with Mexico - USGS http://bit.ly/cJ4rYd

BreakingNews  Update: Quake described as gentle roll in LA, Long Beach, Orange Co.; play briefly stopped at SD Padres game - AP


[ Parent ]
I'm around. ;o) (4.00 / 1)
I haven't been following the news much lately. Too depressing. Anyway, looks like there are some questions on military pay and so forth. Leah hit on a couple things, but there are others. Members stationed overseas get COLA. It's a Overseas Cost of Living Allowance for additional expenses related to living in a foreign country. It varies by country. Korea is at an index of 106 to 118 depending on the base. You basically take the $300 that Leah mentioned times the index to see what the special pay is. Then there is base pay. It depends on a couple factors. The rank, E-4 has been stated, and the Time in Service. So looking at the current charts I would guess his base pay would have been around $2000 a month. If his location was classified as a Hardship location he could have gotten an additional $50-$150 per month. So he could have been making around $2,000-2,500 a month while stationed in Korea.

Then it comes down to life style. When I was an E-4 I had no money left at the end of the month. Of course, back in those days I made a lot less and was stationed down on the Gulf Coast and was partying all the time. ;o)  But if a person was a room rat, didn't party, didn't smoke, didn't buy expensive tech equipment or have car payments, ate in the chow hall on base, they could probably put away at least $1000 a month. Remember, living on base they don't have to pay utilities. Really the only expense would be food, clothing, and toys.

Enlisted in Korea live on base, they don't get BAH. That is a housing allowance for living off base. Unless the rules are changed, Korea is a Remote Assignment (meaning no families including wives) for Junior enlisted and Officers. The higher ranks are allowed with Command permission. But an E-4 would not be granted that.

Of course, there are slot machines in the clubs in Korea. I know my short visit over there I made some good money out of the slot machines. ;o)

Last thought. When I knew I was going to be getting out of the military I made a decision to save up for the separation. For the last 2 years I was in, I put 50% of every check away. I walked out the door with a full year salary in the bank. It sounds like, if this guy is legit and decided a couple years ago, he easily could have had time to put 10,000 away. Plus when he got out he went to live with his parent, thus low or no expenses to dip into any savings.


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the info (0.00 / 0)
n/t

[ Parent ]
Thank you. (0.00 / 0)
I knew you would know:)  

[ Parent ]
SC Primary Protest to Stream Live (0.00 / 0)
The hearing for the protest to the results of last week's SC Democratic U.S. Senate primary will be streamed live on Thursday at 3pm ET via http://Live.VicRawl.com

The protest will be heard by the Executive Board of the South Carolina Democratic Party to consider Judge Vic Rawl's protest to last week's bizarre election.

Full article here: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=7899




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