With NY likely losing a congressional seat before the 2012 elections, one of three GOP House seats (Peter King, Chris Lee, or John McHugh) would likely have been eliminated in the redistricting. But it just got more interesting:
Gov. David Paterson’s appointment of Kirsten Gillibrand to the Senate could have the unintended consequence of dissuading one of the leading statewide Republicans from challenging her in 2010.
New York will be losing at least one House seat in the 2010 redistricting, and Rep. Peter King’s Long Island seat was rumored to be on the chopping block. ... If King thought his seat could be eliminated, he would have every incentive to run for the Senate – even if he didn’t think he had a great chance of winning.
But with Gillibrand’s appointment, her old GOP-heavy Congressional district would become the logical target for elimination (at least if a Republican wins the vacant seat). The district has the most registered Republicans in the entire state – and could be parceled out into several of the neighboring districts without upsetting the balance of power.
It now appears unlikely that King would lose his seat in the redistricting – and if Democrats wanted to dissuade him from running, they could agree to keep his House district intact.
With Carolyn McCarthy and maybe others potentially challenging Gillibrand in a primary, followed by the general election, and having to do it all over again in 2012, it's not surprising that Gillibrand is already starting to raise money.
