As the 2016 presidential race is over a month old, and as one of the star potential candidates is laid up with a scary blood clot, probably in her brain, lets look at a couple of factors:
at this point race and gender and maybe gender preference should not make any difference, but if you look at the history of at least the last fifty years, there have only been two old guys elected, most of the winners have been the more handsome, charming and tall and younger nominees of their party.
Okay, you dont have to be Brad Pitt (or Angelina), but with the exception of two exceptional old guys (LBJ and Reagan) and old homely guy (Nixon) youth trumps everything else. Brains are a plus, but not an overwhelming requirement, so while I have been pretty happy that Clinton and Obama are two of the smartest guys in the room, so were Kerry, Gore, and Dukakis, and dont get me started on Paul Simon, Paul Tsongas and Dennis Kucinich (Yes, I know I am looking at Dems, for the most part, I will let someone who cares take apart the Gopers)
Point being, As much as I admire Biden and Hillary, I am not sure they win the ticket, even if she recovers and decides she wants to run.
I am scanning the horizon to find that skinny kid with big ears and a funny name, or that good looking, not too short woman who is maybe black latino or a sweet but strong "girl next door" blonde, or even one more of us dinosaur white males who has a pretty face and a great, but slogan friendly message like an untainted John Edwards, all among the 35-50 year old set, ideally this person would currently be either the governor, or recent governor of any state in the union.
Keep in mind the competition will likely be Christie, Rubio, or Ryan, the latter two not being governors, nor centrists, Christie, is a governor, and seems to have had a "come to Jesus moment after the recent Hurricane that might make him more appealing to moderate and independent voters. of course if Ryan and Rubio make a long primary campaign out of seeing who can best woo the tea party extremists, even Mark Twain's proverbial yellow dog would probably win in a walk, but I am not counting on the GOP handing us another easy one.
My pics: A dark horse would be Gabby Giffords, pretty, heroic, and continues the whole feel good thing of 2008 on so many levels, but i doubt she will run (though I called Obama's race in early 2006), and she has not been a governor (since JFK we have elected 5 governors and 3 non governors and two of the three governors inherited their office either by succession or by being a sitting VP of a popular former governor).
Christine Gregoire (Washington State)looks strong, but is already 65!
Andrew Mark Cuomo (New York) fits everything if he can bring a strong message and overcome the general anti NY bias that has given us exactly zero NY presidents since FDR.
John Lynch (New Hampshire) also might fit the bill, a very centrist sort of guy, who seems to have the charm and the fight. also already 60, though
Brian Schweitzer (Montana) looks pretty good, but really, Montana?
Jay Nixon (Missouri) ticks the boxes, but seems to have a bit of baggage
Minnesota gives us two candidates, a governor (Mark Dayton) who like Nixon, ticks boxes, but seems a little too "Mondale" to me, and US Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who is attractive and young (52), and has demonstrated a real talent for winning elections and staying popular afterwards!
Of course Deval Patrick (Massachusetts) is the ideal Obama replacement, but to be honest, I don't see America electing another black president in succession, look to Deval in 2020-2024, though at 57 now, he will be getting a bit old, especially for 2024, so maybe he runs and wins in 2016...
Here is one of my favorites: Martin O'Malley (Maryland), not because i particularly like him better than the rest, but he is a crime fighting, pro immigrant, pro gay marriage catholic who is only 50 and is good at winning elections
Dan Malloy (Connecticut) is my other kind of favorite, along with Gabby and Deval, I like his story and his progressive stance. He is young, just two weeks older than Obama, but I fear his chances are pretty slim, exactly because he is a true progressive.
There you have it folks, I am not saying this will be the Democratic field, pretty sure Biden and maybe Hillary will run, and while i would support almost any Dem for president, i believe if the eventual nominee isn't on my above list, we will probably lose. |
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