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2016 Presidential Campaign Update

by: UplandPoet

Mon Dec 31, 2012 at 04:04:40 AM EST

As the 2016 presidential race is over a month old, and as one of the star potential candidates is laid up with a scary blood clot, probably in her brain, lets look at a couple of factors:

at this point race and gender and maybe gender preference should not make any difference, but if you look at the history of at least the last fifty years, there have only been two old guys elected, most of the winners have been the more handsome, charming and tall and younger nominees of their party.

Okay, you dont have to be Brad Pitt (or Angelina), but with the exception of two exceptional old guys (LBJ and Reagan) and old homely guy (Nixon) youth trumps everything else. Brains are a plus, but not an overwhelming requirement, so while I have been pretty happy that Clinton and Obama are two of the smartest guys in the room, so were Kerry, Gore, and Dukakis, and dont get me started on Paul Simon, Paul Tsongas and Dennis Kucinich (Yes, I know I am looking at Dems, for the most part, I will let someone who cares take apart the Gopers)

Point being, As much as I admire Biden and Hillary, I am not sure they win the ticket, even if she recovers and decides she wants to run.

I am scanning the horizon to find that skinny kid with big ears and a funny name, or that good looking, not too short woman who is maybe black latino or a sweet but strong "girl next door" blonde, or even one more of us dinosaur white males who has a pretty face and a great, but slogan friendly message like an untainted John Edwards, all among the 35-50 year old set, ideally this person would currently be either the governor, or recent governor of any state in the union.

Keep in mind the competition will likely be Christie, Rubio, or Ryan, the latter two not being governors, nor centrists, Christie, is a governor, and seems to have had a "come to Jesus moment after the recent Hurricane that might make him more appealing to moderate  and independent voters. of course if Ryan and Rubio make a long primary campaign out of seeing who can best woo the tea party extremists, even Mark Twain's proverbial yellow dog would probably win in a walk, but I am not counting on the GOP handing us another easy one.

My pics: A dark horse would be Gabby Giffords, pretty, heroic, and continues the whole feel good thing of 2008 on so many levels, but i doubt she will run (though I called Obama's race in early 2006), and she has not been a governor (since JFK we have elected 5 governors and 3 non governors and two of the three governors inherited their office either by succession or by being a sitting VP of a popular former governor).

Christine Gregoire (Washington State)looks strong, but is already 65!

Andrew Mark Cuomo (New York) fits everything if he can bring a strong message and overcome the general anti NY bias that has given us exactly zero NY presidents since FDR.

John Lynch (New Hampshire) also might fit the bill, a very centrist sort of guy, who seems to have the charm and the fight. also already 60, though

Brian Schweitzer (Montana) looks pretty good, but really, Montana?

Jay Nixon (Missouri) ticks the boxes, but seems to have a bit of baggage

Minnesota gives us two candidates, a governor (Mark Dayton) who like Nixon, ticks boxes, but seems a little too "Mondale" to me, and US Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who is attractive and young (52), and has demonstrated a real talent for winning elections and staying popular afterwards!

Of course Deval Patrick (Massachusetts) is the ideal Obama replacement, but to be honest, I don't see America electing another black president in succession, look to Deval in 2020-2024, though at 57 now, he will be getting a bit old, especially for 2024, so maybe he runs and wins in 2016...

Here is one of my favorites: Martin O'Malley (Maryland), not because i particularly like him better than the rest, but he is a crime fighting, pro immigrant, pro gay marriage catholic who is only 50 and is good at winning elections

Dan Malloy (Connecticut) is my other kind of favorite, along with Gabby and Deval, I like his story and his progressive stance. He is young, just two weeks older than Obama, but I fear his chances are pretty slim, exactly because he is a true progressive.

There you have it folks, I am not saying this will be the Democratic field, pretty sure Biden and maybe Hillary will run, and while i would support almost any Dem for president, i believe if the eventual nominee isn't on my above list, we will probably lose.
UplandPoet :: 2016 Presidential Campaign Update

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Blood Clot (0.00 / 0)
Just to be technical - the likelihood (and the hope) is that Hillary's blood clot is NOT in her brain, and is instead a subdural hematoma, thus in the brain coverings. This is likely if indeed it's related to the fall and concussion.

If she's got a blood clot somewhere in her cardiovascular system, we're looking at something far more serious. I am so hoping that's not the case....

And while we're talking about health, Gabby Giffords will likely never again be able to campaign for office. The damage is far too severe from the shooting. It's very sad, and she is a good poster child for gun control, but she couldn't physically do what is necessary.

I'm still hoping Hillary runs, but if not, I'm not making any projections yet.  

Thanks (0.00 / 0)
Good to get a docs understanding on both ladies

[ Parent ]
the latest nytimes (0.00 / 0)
article makes it sound like she has been even sicker than one would imagine for some weeks.  I don't understand what her family can have been thinking to not have someone with her.  The Clintons must have megamillions from the fees Bill has been raking in, so money was not an object.

"Mrs. Clinton's friends say they have become increasingly concerned about her since she fell ill in mid-December from a stomach virus that left her severely dehydrated. She was vomiting constantly, friends said, and fell forward, hitting her head and blacking out. The result, one friend said, was a contusion on her eye and on her brain."

[ Parent ]
Head Injuries (0.00 / 0)
I'd been worried since I heard she fell and sustained a concussion. Healthy people don't just "fall" and get concussions -- they fall down a flight of stairs, or land on a tree while skiing -- BUT -- often with head injuries/insults of any sort, the person says he/she is okay and then bad things happen.

Sometimes, people have the ultimate brain insult: stroke, and they say they're okay. Most people don't know to ask the patient to smile, repeat a sentence given to them, and then raise both their hands above their head. Most people also wouldn't know to be certain the smile was even on both sides, and check what happens with their eyes and eyebrows while smiling. They also wouldn't know the correct difficulty of the sentence, nor what to look for as the person raises both their arms. As an aside, if you suspect someone has had a stroke, have them smile, repeat a sentence and raise both their arms. If in doubt, call 911. Better safe than sorry.

Further, the smarter someone is, the better able he/she is to hide symptomatology. This is true even in Alzheimer's and other forms of dementia.

Bottom line is, most people aren't doctors, and most doctors don't graduate in the top 10% of their classes. I'm sure the Clinton family did what they thought was right, they consulted with doctors, and things just went south. Further, there's a question of whether the dehydration caused the fall, or if the clot was already there and caused the fall. We'll never know. If they did an MRI when she first fell, swelling and inflammation could have masked the clot, or it could have been too small to be seen.

They're saying she's going to be okay, and I'm hoping they're right. NY Presbyterian is a good hospital.  

[ Parent ]
I resemble that remark (0.00 / 0)
Say what? LOL. As a person that has suffered head injuries......

I go through bouts where I can't speak sentences without pauses, that I don't know are there, and the short term memory goes in and out. And my major concussion was 40 years ago. Looking back over time, I can see patterns of the effect going all the way back to that initial concussion. I have had MRIs and all is clear, but you never know with the brain. Even with the early brain injury, I was able to be an honor student in High School and College, but the effects linger to this day. Some worse than others, some made worse by pain killers.

I wish Hillary well. Sounds like she got too weak from her flu or virus and didn't drink enough fluids and took a nasty header. I know she is getting the best of care.  

[ Parent ]
Just saw a report if I understood right looks like DocJess was right (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
VP (0.00 / 0)
While not sure which of the Governors will get the nomination (I like Brian Schweitzer as the strongest general election candidate), I want to put in an early plug for the Veep sweepstakes -- especially if an older candidate from the Northeast gets the nod (e.g. Biden).  Think either of the Castro brothers.  Both would make a good candidate.  Both would help cement the democratic advantage in the southwest and Latino vote for the next decade.  Both would force the Republicans to spend time defending Texas and Arizona rather than going after the swing states from 2012.

2nd that nomination, but (0.00 / 0)
I think the one that is currently the Mayor of San Antonio should run for Governor of Texas next. I think he would have a good shot at winning and that would be the push to move Texas back to the Democratic side of the deal. His brother is going to be a Freshman Congressman. 2016 might be a good time for him to be VP material, but I think it would be a bit premature.

Only knock on either of them would be the negative campaign involving their last name and the name association with Cuba's Castro. Even though there is NO connection, you konw that dirty political ads would be flying to make them out to be comminunist. Shoot, most Democratic candidates get that anyway without the name associations.

[ Parent ]




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