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Who will be Florida in 2012?

by: DocJess

Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 12:01:00 PM EDT


We all remember how Florida couldn't certify a winner in 2000. In fact, they never did, the Supremes stole called it for them. This year, there may well again be states that just don't know by Tuesday night, or even Wednesday. This includes voting problems in places like New York and New Jersey (and potentially Virginia in the southwest corner) due to Sandy.

And then there's Oregon, where they're ALREADY mounting a criminal investigation of ballot fraud in Clackamas County. Again. Details here. Since Oregon is all voting by mail, there may be a delay in the results. And perhaps a court challenge.

Ohio? The Republicans think Somalis are trying to steal the election. No, really. Plus, eight counties face an actual problem of actual voter fraud problems tied to machinery, some owned by the Romney kids. If it's close, there could be an automatic recount required.

Pennsylvania? We have some absentee ballot issues and it appears that some voter registrations didn't get processed, but it doesn't look too serious.

The RNC is concerned about potential miscounts in Colorado. They say Romney votes will count for Obama. Personally, I think those will actually BE votes for Obama, but it could still delay things.

And then there's Florida. On a good day, they're going to have problems because the Republicans work SO HARD SO CONSTANTLY to screw things up. It's like a cottage industry for them. 

This doesn't even include the fact that the Department of Justice is sending 780 election monitors to places in 23 states, including places like Texas, which has threatened to arrest them. Again, no, really

Will it matter? Perhaps if Ohio and Florida can't announce a winner for several days, but it may not be that close. I'm still at 303. For fun, though, which state do you think will be the last to announce?

DocJess :: Who will be Florida in 2012?

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Reach meet Stretch (0.00 / 0)
I said other. Can I get a drum roll.....................

Texas

(in his Steve Irkle impression) Did I say that.......

As DocJess alludes to, there is a lot of talk around the UN monitors. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad. But our Early Voting ended yesterday in Texas. Between the In Person and Mail In early ballots, Texas is sitting at around 40% of registered voters already have voted. We only have 2 weeks (12 days of early voting that ended 11/2). So the polling places might be kind of empty on Tuesday. But why did I say Texas above? Texas has a large Latino/Hispanic population. A lot of that is around the Houston, San Antonio, and El Paso areas. While the El Paso early voting numbers are low, and about normal, both San Antonio (Bexar Co. 40.35%) and Houston (Harris Co. 38.33%, Fort Bend Co. 47.97%, Galveston Co. 45.40%, Montgomery CO. 46.18%) area number are up, and up a lot.

Another factor. The lack of Romney/Ryan signs. In fact, yesterday I saw my first car with a Romney/Ryan sign. Yup, only one sighting this year so far. I have seen several Obama/Biden, and a few anti-Obama stickers, but no Mitt enthusiasm. Even ads and robo-calls are telling. Now remember we have had record early voting. I have gotten calls over the past month from Obama folks, but no calls from Romney folks. Ads? Well, the majority of ads over the past month have been positive Obama ads with a couple negative towards Romney ads until last night. I saw a couple CrossRoads and other superpac negative towards Obama ads. Nothing positive about Romney. But curious why the superpacs would start throwing money into Texas at this late point. Could be telling.........

So I say when Texas announces, it will have enough Obama votes and Electorals that no one is counting on, to throw Obama over the 270.

Power of Positive thinking........ ;o)


Unsure (0.00 / 0)

For declaring a winner in the presidential race, I would call it a draw between Alaska, Colorado, and Hawaii.  At the end of the day, one state may be close enough that you could technically ask for a recount or challenge votes, but I think Obama is going to have enough of an electoral vote margin that one state will not matter.

Colorado closes three hours before Alaska and Hawaii.  While Nevada closes after Colorado, I think the margin in Nevada will be wide enough that it will be declared before polls close in Alaska and Hawiaii.  Colorado could be enough of a nail biter that Alaska and Hawaii get called before Colorado.

As far as certified for President, I would have to look at the state law for the date in which the results are officially certified, but California might be at the tail end.

Of all races, the one most likely to go to recoumt and a court fight might be the Montana Senate race.




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