It's down to the wire, and it's been an interesting year. Right now, we have 53 Democratic Senators including Bernie Sanders, and for reasons I cannot understand, Joe Lieberman. So make your projection:
In looking all the published forecasts, I always love how some folks (who will remain nameless, but you can check the chart here) live in Toss-Up world. Someone's going to win, and they'd really rather not make a wrong choice. I think some races really are toss-ups, but most of them beyond the givens? These people like to keep changing their ratings over the course of the year, and sometimes that's warranted when something huge happens. (Think "macaca" or "too wide a stance".)
So I'm locking down my number, and my number is 54. I see clear wins (in the order of Matt's chart) for Mazie Hirono, Bob Casey, Martin Heinrich, Bill Nelson, Sherrod Brown, Claire McCaskill, Elizabeth Warren (and I've had MA blue since the beginning), Tim Kaine, Chris Murphy, Tammy Baldwin, Heidi Heitkamp, and Rich Carmona. We all know that Angus King will win, and I believe he'll caucus with the Democrats. I think we lose Indiana, Montana and Nevada, although I remain hopeful that I'm wrong in those races.
I keep my chart listings with leans and toss-ups because some races are still leaning, but for this post, I've decided to fish and not cut bait. (Or however that expression goes....)
Please use the comments to tell everyone which races make up your final number.