Welcome to yet another gloomy edition of the 2010 DemConWatch House Forecast, a summary of the best House forecasts on the net.
House Forecast: 210.1 (-45.9), another drop from the last forecast on Oct 23, (213.0 (-43.)). Nothing here you don't already know. (The red line in the graph shows where the House flips, at the loss of 39 seats). Here are the numbers:
We'll have race-by-race results here on Tuesday, and, as always, will track the races by how they were originally rated. Remember, the Tossups split exactly 50-50 in 2008. The Dems will have to improve on that if they want to keep the House this year.
The House Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 House.
For CQ, Rothenberg and SSP, the House Forecast for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a race that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat. At that request of Cook Political Report, we are now counting their Leans at .65, and their Likelys at .8. Although we don't differentiate between the Likelys and the Solids in the chart, the number for Cook does reflect their percentages. For 538, the overall is taken directly from their forecasts, not derived from their rankings. For the rankings, we have normalized 538's categories to match the other forecasts, so 35-65% = T, and 11-34% and 66-89% = RL or DL as appropriate.
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