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2010 House Forecast: 210.1 (-45.9)

by: Matt

Sat Oct 30, 2010 at 23:54:26 PM EDT


Welcome to yet another gloomy edition of the 2010 DemConWatch House Forecast, a summary of the best House forecasts on the net.

House Forecast: 210.1 (-45.9), another drop from the last forecast on Oct 23, (213.0 (-43.)). Nothing here you don't already know. (The red line in the graph shows where the House flips, at the loss of 39 seats). Here are the numbers:

Cook: -49.6 (was -46.5)
Rothenberg: -44.9 (was -41.4)
SSP: -38.6 (was -36.6)
CQ: -41.9 (was -38.1)
538: -54.4 (was -52.4)

We'll have race-by-race results here on Tuesday, and, as always, will track the races by how they were originally rated. Remember, the Tossups split exactly 50-50 in 2008. The Dems will have to improve on that if they want to keep the House this year.

Methodology after the break.

Matt :: 2010 House Forecast: 210.1 (-45.9)

The House Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 House.

For CQ, Rothenberg and SSP, the House Forecast for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a race that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat. At that request of Cook Political Report, we are now counting their Leans at .65, and their Likelys at .8. Although we don't differentiate between the Likelys and the Solids in the chart, the number for Cook does reflect their percentages. For 538, the overall is taken directly from their forecasts, not derived from their rankings. For the rankings, we have normalized 538's categories to match the other forecasts, so 35-65% = T, and 11-34% and 66-89% = RL or DL as appropriate.

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so the republican take over of the house is a done deal? (0.00 / 0)
can we move the needle back in enough races to change it between now and election day? given that 1/5-1/3 are already cast. are there 5-6 races without early voting where the dems are within striking distance that we could call and make the difference?

Not the way to look at it (0.00 / 0)
There's no guarantee that the consensus is right, particularly for the House. While it looks impressive to have five sources agreeing with each other, they look at each other--FiveThirtyEight explicitly so. If the polls are having trouble with cell phone only voters, or with identifying likely voters, or with demographic weighting, or whatever, then a race with a lot of early voting that the consensus thinks has the Republican leading by, say, five points, might actually be tied. Thinking they're already lost and focussing on races without early voting would be a big mistake.

[ Parent ]
Not a done deal (0.00 / 0)
538 says the Dems have a 1 in 6 chance of keeping the House. Don't know if that's high or low, but it seems reasonable.

[ Parent ]
Tough to Tell with House Races (0.00 / 0)

Because polling is rare in house races, a lot of the projections are based on hunches on which districts are most likely to change based on national polling.

I live in a district that the "experts" are calling a toss-up, yet a poll taken this week shows the Democrat up by 7%.




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