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2010 House Forecast - 219.4 (-36.6)

by: Matt

Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 10:00:00 AM EDT


Welcome to yet another gloomy edition of the 2010 DemConWatch House Forecast, a summary of the best House forecasts on the net.

House Forecast: 219.4 (-36.6), another drop from the last forecast on Sep 20, (223.7 (-32.3)). Technical difficulties prevent us from showing the full chart, but here are the numbers:

Cook: -39.6
Rothenberg: -33.8
SSP: -32.6
CQ: -30.6
538: -46.3

What's interesting is that 538's forecast has barely moved over the last 2 weeks, while the other forecasts have shifted by an average of 4 seats in the GOP's favor. And 538 is still the only forecast calling explicitly for a GOP takeover, although Cook is right on the edge with a 218.8 forecast for the Democrats.

Methodology after the break.

Matt :: 2010 House Forecast - 219.4 (-36.6)

The House Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 House.

For CQ, Rothenberg and SSP, the House Forecast for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a race that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat. At that request of Cook Political Report, we are now counting their Leans at .65, and their Likelys at .8. Although we don't differentiate between the Likelys and the Solids in the chart, the number for Cook does reflect their percentages. For 538, the overall is taken directly from their forecasts, not derived from their rankings. For the rankings, we have normalized 538's categories to match the other forecasts, so 35-65% = T, and 11-34% and 66-89% = RL or DL as appropriate.

The House seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Only those seats that have at least one of the rankings showing the seat as Lean or Tossup are shown.

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