(Agree or disagree with Ben's forecast? Let us know in the comments. We'll have an updated official DCW forecast next week. - promoted by Matt)
There is a battle going on now for the soul of the Republican Party. Factions are spilling their guts, trying to get the upper hand and take over the party. All these factions claim they know the absolute truth and those who disagree with them are the enemy. In this climate, moderates and independents hopefully will see that Republicans are not ready to lead.
In this post I will go through the Senate Races and show the possibilities of Democrats actually gaining seats in November.
For starters, the Dems will hold the following seats hand down: New York (Schumer), Vermont (Leahy), Maryland (Mikulski), Oregon (Wyden), Hawaii (Inouye), New York (Gillibrand), and a surprise, Connecticut where Blumenthal now has an insurmountable lead in the polls.
Because of the voting record of the following states and a combination of the simplistic belief system and the fanatical convictions of their Republican opponents, the Dems will probably also hold West Virginia (Manchin), Nevada (Reid), Wisconsin (Feingold) and California where Boxer will narrowly beat fired HP exec and political dilettante Fiorina.
Similarly, IMHO, the Republicans will hold Alabama (Shelby) , South Dakota (Thune), Kansas (Open), Oklahoma (Coburn), Utah (Open), Idaho (Crapo), Iowa (Grassley), Arizona (McCain) and Georgia (Isakson). They are also likely to keep their seat in Alaska, even though there will be a divisive primary with a teabagger challenge, instigated by Alaska's own half
wit term governor.
Let's also throw in a Republican sure gain in North Dakota (Open) and a likely gain in Arkansas. That gives Republicans a gain of two seats.
The Florida Republicans forced Governor Crist out of the party, I predict Crist will not only win as an independent, but will caucus as a Democrat. Republicans lose that seat and are down to one gain.
Then there are three states with very flawed Republican candidates. Dems will probably keep Illinois because Kirk can't apologize convincingly and is unrepentant for his tall tales of wartime valor. We will also keep Colorado, because the two Republican competing for the Senate nomination, Buck and Norton, are tea party extremists, who are outdoing each other to get as far away from mainstream Americas as they can. Also, we will most probably gain Kentucky as Rand Paul can't keep his foot out of his mouth and he says weirder things every day.
So far we have Republicans gaining North Dakota and Arkansas and losing Kentucky and Florida.
We have a tie so far!!!!
So here is what is left,- 8 battleground states that will determine the 2010 Senate Race.
- Ohio (Open) - Fisher the Dem should knock out Portman the Bushie lobbyist
- Missouri (Open) - Carnahan is keeping neck and neck with Blunt in fund-raising and can expose him as a Washington insider
- Pennsylvania (Open) - Sestek and Toomey - hopefully after beating Specter in the primary, Sestek will have no problem with Toomey.
- North Carolina (Burr) As long as we attack the party of NO - senators like Burr have little chance. Marshall will win. Besides, no party has won this Senate seat twice in a row since the age of the dinosaurs.
- New Hampshire (Open) Right now Ayotte and Binnie are knocking each other out in the Republican primary. This should make it easy for Hodes to use their inconsistencies to label them as out of the mainstream.
- Louisiana (Vitter) has Madam Problems, Senior Staff who beat women problems, Rachel Maddow problems and now two new viable challengers: - Traylor running against him in the primary and Wooton running as an Independent. Our Dem Melancon should conquer the divided Republicans, using their own words against them.
- Delaware (Open) An Ultra Pro Abortion group is backing Castle's Republican Challenger. Castle must either move to the right to win the primary, or lose to religious fanatics who are against abortions even if the mother's life is threatened or she has been raped. Coons has it easy.
- Indiana - Our candidate Ellsworth is a bit behind but has more money that Coats and seams a more steady trustworthy candidate.Voters should see that, even in a state with huge unemployment.
If the above 8 races are equally split with the Dems taking 4 and the Republicans taking 4, then the Senate will be 59 -41 as it is now.
If the Dems win 5 of the 8, we are back to 60 - 40
If a miracle happens (unemployment down to 8%) we can win 6 of 8 and have 61 seats to 39 for the Republicans.
Lets work hard to make this happen.