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Dems have good chance to gain Senate seats in November

by: benjaminspector

Sat Jul 17, 2010 at 05:16:59 AM EDT


(Agree or disagree with Ben's forecast? Let us know in the comments. We'll have an updated official DCW forecast next week. - promoted by Matt)

There is a battle going on now for the soul of the Republican Party. Factions are spilling their guts, trying to get the upper hand and take over the party. All these factions claim they know the absolute truth and those who disagree with them are the enemy. In this climate, moderates and independents hopefully will see that Republicans are not ready to lead. 

In this post I will go through the Senate Races and show the possibilities of Democrats actually gaining seats in November.

For starters, the Dems will hold the following seats hand down: New York (Schumer), Vermont (Leahy), Maryland (Mikulski), Oregon (Wyden), Hawaii (Inouye), New York (Gillibrand), and a surprise, Connecticut where Blumenthal now has an insurmountable lead in the polls.

Because of the voting record of the following states and a combination of the simplistic belief system and the fanatical convictions of their Republican opponents, the Dems will probably also hold West Virginia (Manchin),  Nevada (Reid), Wisconsin (Feingold) and California where Boxer will narrowly beat fired HP exec and political dilettante Fiorina.

Similarly, IMHO, the Republicans will hold Alabama (Shelby) , South Dakota (Thune), Kansas (Open), Oklahoma (Coburn), Utah (Open), Idaho (Crapo), Iowa (Grassley), Arizona (McCain) and Georgia (Isakson). They are also likely to keep their seat in Alaska, even though there will be a divisive primary with a teabagger challenge, instigated by Alaska's own half wit term governor.

Let's also throw in a Republican sure gain in North Dakota (Open) and a likely gain in Arkansas. That gives Republicans a gain of two seats.

The Florida Republicans forced Governor Crist out of the party, I predict Crist will not only win as an independent, but will caucus as a Democrat. Republicans lose that seat and are down to one gain.

Then there are three states with very flawed Republican candidates. Dems will probably keep Illinois because Kirk can't apologize convincingly and is unrepentant for his tall tales of wartime valor.  We will also keep Colorado,  because the two Republican competing for the Senate nomination, Buck and Norton, are tea party extremists,  who are outdoing each other to get as far away from mainstream Americas as they can. Also, we will most probably gain Kentucky as Rand Paul can't keep his foot out of his mouth and he says weirder things every day.

So far we have Republicans gaining North Dakota and Arkansas and losing Kentucky and Florida.

We have a tie so far!!!!

So here is what is left,-   8 battleground states that will determine the 2010 Senate Race.

  1. Ohio (Open) - Fisher the Dem should knock out Portman the  Bushie lobbyist
  2. Missouri (Open) - Carnahan is keeping neck and neck with Blunt in fund-raising and can expose him as  a Washington insider
  3. Pennsylvania (Open) - Sestek and Toomey - hopefully after beating Specter in the primary, Sestek will have no problem with Toomey.
  4. North Carolina (Burr) As long as we attack the party of NO - senators like Burr have little chance. Marshall will win. Besides, no party has won this Senate seat twice in a row since the age of the dinosaurs.
  5. New Hampshire (Open) Right now Ayotte and Binnie are knocking each other out in the Republican primary. This should make it easy for Hodes to use their inconsistencies to label them as out of the mainstream.
  6. Louisiana (Vitter) has Madam Problems, Senior Staff who beat women problems, Rachel Maddow problems and now two new viable challengers: - Traylor running against him in the primary and Wooton running as an Independent. Our Dem Melancon should conquer the divided Republicans, using their own words against them.
  7. Delaware (Open) An Ultra Pro Abortion group is backing Castle's Republican Challenger. Castle must either move to the right to win the primary, or lose to religious fanatics who are against abortions even if the mother's life is threatened or she has been raped. Coons has it easy.
  8. Indiana - Our candidate Ellsworth is a bit behind but has more money that Coats and seams a more steady trustworthy candidate.Voters should see that, even in a state with huge unemployment.

If the above 8 races are equally split with the Dems taking 4 and the Republicans taking 4, then the Senate will be 59 -41 as it is now.

If the Dems win 5 of the 8, we are back to 60 - 40

If a miracle happens (unemployment down to 8%) we can win 6 of 8 and have 61 seats to 39 for the Republicans.

Lets work hard to make this happen.

benjaminspector :: Dems have good chance to gain Senate seats in November

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i like your analysis, but think holding 58-59 will be more likely (4.00 / 1)
if we can hold even 55-56 and keep the house, it will either signal the end of the GOPers as we know them, or more likely, the end of the Tea Baggers as a real power before the 2012 elections.

also, not sure Crist will caucus with the Dems, (4.00 / 1)
 I think his model will be more TLB, a somewhat outcast GOPer, maybe trying to align himself with the establishment RNC. He certainly hopes to be President one day, and I don't think he can find a path as a Dem, but might with the gopers if the more traditional powers regain the upper hand, say 2016 or 2020.

[ Parent ]
Crist (4.00 / 1)
It's unclear with whom he'll prefer to caucus, but there is every indication Dems are more likely than the IIE, first because they've said they don't want him, second, because he'll like his "independent" streak and not want to upset the Democrats who actually would have gotten him elected if he wins, and third, no matter which side he caucuses with, based on his positions, he won't be a sure vote for either side on every issue.  

[ Parent ]
Bravo (4.00 / 1)
Really enjoyed reading your analysis.

I think Lincoln will probably keep her seat in Arkansas.  

As far Pennsylvania I think they should have kept Specter; Sestak isn't doing all the great in the polls and hasn't had a steady lead since the middle of last year: http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Time will tell  :)

Article regarding Blumenthal's great poll numbers:  http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Regarding Crist: If he wins I don't know who he'll caucus with but I think he will 'vote' with who ever he wants.  He'll probably end up being more like Snowe, Collins, and Scott Brown crossing over to our side on the issues that matter.  


Sestak will win... (4.00 / 1)
Specter would have lost.

Told you that last summer, telling you that now, will be telling you that the morning after election day.  


[ Parent ]
Crist, Adopted Democrat (0.00 / 0)
Charlie Crist, Adopted Democrat
Now this is interesting, although it's not entirely clear to me what the implications are or will be. According to an upcoming survey from Public Policy Polling, a majority of those planning to vote for Gov. Charlie Crist for U.S. Senate in Florida think that if he wins election he should caucus with the Democrats.
SNIP

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...

PPP Poll: Crist Voters Want Him To Caucus With The Senate Dems
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...
.



[ Parent ]
i think there is a lot of "objectifying" going on in those polls.. (0.00 / 0)
Crist was a true conservative, when he was a cabinet member in the JEB admin. he became a shockingly moderate only because the party has gone "tea party" on him over the past couple of years. his positions are not near as liberal as say TLB or Arlen Specter, but many Floridians are so happy to have a gov to the left of Jeb and Rubio, and they think Meek doesnt have a chance, or they are closet racists or they are very conservative Dems, which, in FLA is a lot like the previously mentioned group. do not think Crist is ever gonna go LIBERAL.... he will be far to the right of Bill Nelson, but he is going to appease what he thinks is the will of the electorate, whenever he can figure out what that is, especially if he can grandstand like he is about to do on the oil banning special session.

[ Parent ]
actually, if you kick the rasmussen propaganda polls out, sestak is doing fine (0.00 / 0)
and i know fla and crist, he will be a mostly moderate republican, but look for him to be with the leadership more than not

actually (4.00 / 1)
if you kick Rasmussen out then you'd make Sestak look even worse.

Since May 2009 there have been 35 Sestak/Toomey polls.
Of the 'seven' polls that Sestak had a lead, 'three' were from Rasmussen, 'three' from R2000/Daily Kos, 'one' from Quinnipiac (and ZERO times in the lead at PPP and Morning Call and Franklin & Marshall).

So, if Rasussen wasn't in there then Sestak would show being in the lead only four polls in over a year's time.

Since two of the last three polls were a tie - it looks like a TOSS UP to me.

 


[ Parent ]
R2000 (4.00 / 1)
Remember the R2000/Daily Kos ones would be under the heading of Daily Kos suing R2000 for fraud.  So the last 2 'real' polls are dead ties, and the 2 before that were margin of error.  You certainly can't still be looking at pre-primary polls which is how far you'd need to go back to get any more real polls.

I think the analysis is slightly optimistic.  Some of the seats listed as 'safe' I think it is more likely they are 80% seats.  If you have enough 80% seats odds are you'll lose one...   Also remember it's not impossible to lose every tossup seat.  But we can hope[it's also not impossible to win every tossup].


[ Parent ]
My take (4.00 / 1)
I agree with you up through the tie, although some are a little shaky.

Within your 8, I think NC is very, very hard for the Dems in the current environment. Louisiana is starting to get interesting, but isn't there yet. Indiana and Delaware would take GOP missteps, which, as we've seen in Kentucky and Nevada, can certainly happen.

So in your 8, I see PA as lean-D; Ohio, Missouri, and New Hampshire as toss-ups, and the rest as lean or likely R.

That makes it very hard to do better than a tie. But, as UplandPoet pointed out, a tie would be seen as a huge Democratic victory in the current environment.

And in some ways, I think it's better to have in the high 50's than exactly 60. With high 50's, Snowe, Collins, Brown, and their ilk have to be willing to take the blame for filibustering popular Democratic initiatives. With 60, the balance of power shifts to people like Ben Nelson, Lieberman, and Landrieu, and that's not so good for the party. Weirdly, we kind of need the RINOs to bring are DINOs along, rather than the other way around!

So I think this is a "work for good candidates" Dem election in the Senate, rather than a "do whatever we can to get to 60" kind of election. Getting a strong 57 or 58 will be better for the party in both the short and long run than a cobbled-together, compromised 60.

And yes, this is coming from the guy who often likes cobbled-together compromises! :)


My math needs checking (0.00 / 0)
Please check this:

Of the final 8 battleground states in my projection -

OH MS NC NH LA are held by the Republicans

and DE IN PA are held by the Democrats.

My brain is fried so I don't know if a gain is the same as a hold for the final count of Senators.

Thanks,

Ben

Democrats never agree on anything, that's why they're Democrats. If they agreed with each other, they would be Republicans. - Will Rogers



OK (0.00 / 0)
So if we split those 8, and all else goes as you say, we gain 1. (By the way, Missouri is MO.)

[ Parent ]
It won't matter (0.00 / 0)
Until they change the rules of the Senate, it will no matter if you have 41 or 59. It only takes 1 person to put a hold on the whole process.

I am one of the few that think the Senate should do what the founders envisioned. Represent their State, not the Party or individual districts. But the rules and "party" politics have changed the function of the Senate drastically.


National interests (0.00 / 0)
"Represent their state" can replace partisan lines with "sectional" ones. North versus South, coast versus interior, rural versus urban. The Senators from Alaska have to vote on bills that relate to orange growers, the ones from Iowa have to vote on offshore drilling, and everyone outside of Nevada vote on whether to store the country's nuclear waste there. Parties cut across that.

Senators have a balancing act: doing what is best for their country, their party, and their state. That's actually a good kind of "check and balance," in my mind, and in fact is the subject of JFK's Profiles in Courage.

Right now, though, the parties are becoming more aligned with specific regions. And that's part of what's making things increasingly partisan; it's no surprise that the Republicans most likely to buck their party are from the Northeast.


[ Parent ]
New forecast going up tomorrow at 10 AM. (0.00 / 0)
55.2 - Graph in sidebar is already updated. And yes, we included 538.


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