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Sestak continues to close on Specter

by: Matt

Tue May 04, 2010 at 09:40:12 AM EDT

Latest results from the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call tracking poll show Sestak within 4 points:

           5/2   5/3   5/4
Specter    48%   49%   46%
Sestak     42%   40%   42%
Other      11%   11%   12%

Now this could be just statistical noise, or this could be a trend. But Quinnipiac shows a pretty similar 47-39 race, so there's no doubt the race is in single digits with two weeks to go. Below is the "more sensitive" Pollster chart which better shows how the gap is closing:

Update: In Kentucky, Dan Mongiardo leads Jack Conway, 36-27.

Matt :: Sestak continues to close on Specter

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Looks like a trend to me... (0.00 / 0)
Thanks Matt for the polling data. This is what I love about demconwatch. Looking at the data since Feb, the gap is closing big time, and I would call this a "horse race" at present.

My real question is who would be better posed to win the general? Sestak or Specter?

Sestak or Specter? (0.00 / 0)
At first glance, I'd say we don't know. Specter is currently down 5-10 points to Toomey; Sestak is down 6-11, so it's a wash.

But three things lead me to say Sestak has a better chance.

1) Sestak is just isn't well known enough among the general public for his current numbers to be that meaningful. There's much more room for growth with him than with Specter, who everyone knows.

2) Dem enthusiasm will be higher for Sestak than for Specter, who many Dems have been trying to get rid of for decades.

3) Rumor has it that this is not a good year to be a Dem incumbent.

So given all that, I would think Sestak has the better shot at pulling it off.

[ Parent ]
More on Sestak or Specter (0.00 / 0)
PPP has a somewhat similar take:


They end with:

We really don't know what Pennsylvania voters think of Sestak yet, but we do know that they're not real high on Specter. If Sestak wears well as a candidate it's a situation where Democrats may be better off in the fall with a fresher face. We'll see how it shakes out...

[ Parent ]




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