I cannot remember when a single week in DC could have such potential and actual ramifications on so many different areas of our lives. Our DIRECT lives, we Americans.
To remain unaffected by the things occurring this week, you would need to be a self-employed hermit with no friends or family who is immune to all disease and incapable of having an accident. Otherwise, you KNOW someone with an underwater mortgage, someone who could deploy to Afghanistan, someone without a job, and/or someone without health insurance.....it's a big, big week.
The Senate is debating health care. I've finished the Senate bill they're looking at, and have some information on some of the amendments. I am reserving comments until the amendments are finalized, since that could truly change the nature of the bill. My bottom line question will likely be whether passing a bad bill is better than passing no bill at all.
President Obama will speak on Afghanistan tonight. You'll be able to watch it here on DCW. "Everyone" says that we'll be looking at sending 30-some-odd thousand young Americans to fight there. If you missed it, you should read the Senate Foreign Relations report on how we let Bin Laden slip out of Tora Bora eight years ago this month.
The Obama administration is looking at fining mortgage lenders that don't modify enough mortgages. There is money available to the lenders (up to $3,000) for each modified mortgage, but it seems that make more money by NOT finalizing the modifications. Sadly, no one is talking about modifying the mark to market rules, which actually could get the mortgage lenders moving incredibly quickly to accept some blame, share the pain, and move on. However, the administration is considering allowing judges to modify residential first mortgages during bankruptcy proceedings, which would have an immediate affect on the housing situation.
The jobs summit starts tomorrow. I am relieved and hopeful since Paul Krugman will be there. He has been one of the few voices of reason during the economic crisis. I hope they listen to him. Also attending (albeit not a complete list) will be executives from Disney, AT&T, Comcast (yes, the folks on track to buy NBC), Google, Boeing and FedEx, along with the president of the UnitedSteel Workers, academics, mayors and past and current administration members.
One of the mayors attending will be Ed Pawlowskiof Allentown, PA. President Obama will be traveling to Allentown following the two-day summit. In a way, the choice of this location is a metaphor for health care, jobs, home ownership and the American dreams delayed by the current recession.
Back during the Reagan administration, Billy Joel wrote the song Allentown, chronicling the death of a coal and steel town. Ever since, it has happened again and again: autos in Michigan, car parts in Ohio, textiles in the Carolinas, fallout across the US. If you've never seen it:
Of everything that is occurring this week, I believe the jobs summit is the most critical. The Senate debate on health care is going to drag on for a long time, and its importance will be dictated by how strong the bill ends up being, and the implementation date.
If the administration can come up with bold action on jobs, it would provide an immediate stop gap to all other domestic issues. The mortgage crisis, and the previously implemented "solutions" were predicated on exotic mortgages, not payment problems related to job loss. The ever growing number of people without health insurance is exacerbated by unemployment. Same with increased reliance of the population on food stamps. State coffers are dwindling because of the decreased taxes. Even the problems with long term funding of Medicare and Social Security are made far worse by the millions of people not paying payroll taxes.
If the Obama administration could get the unemployment rate down to 8% by next summer, it changes the calculus of November's elections. Coupled with a new industrial policy based on domestic production, it could be the rebirth of blue collar careers in America.
In 1993, Kevin Kline starred in the movie Dave. He played an temp agency owner who was the spitting image of the president. When the real president had an incapacitating stroke, Dave was called in to take his place. Here is his speech on a jobs program: the part you're interested in starts at 1:35. At the end are real people you'll recognize.
And finally, when we think of the "party of no" we should remember the best speech from the best movie on American Presidency ever made. The speech is about character, and American values, and some hard truths about America. Everytime Michael Douglas says "Bob Rumson", think "The Republican Party" and you'll have America: December 2009 in a nutshell.
If you've never seen it, this is from Rob Reiner's The American President. (And if you really never have seen it, go rent it. Today.)
