| The next time Matt updates the Senate rankings, you'll notice that my Florida ranking has been changed from "Leans Republican" to "Solid Republican." I had held some hope that maybe, just maybe, we could take the seat, but that was predicated on Charlie Crist winning the GOp primary, and that ship sailed. Rubio seems to be unstoppable, and my potential pick fave candidate doesn't want to run on the Democratic side. My reasoning doesn't rely on polls, but on demographics and a few, um, intangibles, but I know you folks like polls, so here you go: Quinnipiac: Gov. Charlie Crist's lead over former state house speaker Marco Rubio in the 2010 Republican U.S. Senate primary has been cut in half from 55 - 26 percent to 50 - 35 percent, but the Governor tops the leading Democrat, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, 51 - 31 percent among all voters, while Rubio trails Meek 36 - 33 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Rasmussen 1: The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters in the state finds Crist outdistancing Rubio 49% to 35%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and 12% are undecided.
Rasmussen 2: A new Rasmussen Reports survey of Florida voters shows Governor Charlie Crist leading Representative Kendrick Meek by a 46% to 34% margin. In August, Crist led by 19 and in June he was ahead by 21. Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio leads Meek by a similar margin, 46% to 31%. In August, Rubio led by 13 percentage points.
In both situations, Crist is dropping relative to Rubio, and in the Rasmussen poll, has fallen below the critical 50% mark. If you like polling data, you know it's not just the raw numbers, but the trends. I believe Rubio eventually wins both the primary and the general, and therefore the seat stays Republican for a few reasons. First, the black vs. brown issue. Hispanics in Florida are better organized than African Americans. Don't get me wrong, Kendrick Meek's mother Carrie is a force to be reckoned with, and she held the seat Kendrick has now for the 10 years preceding him. It's an overwhelmingly Democratic district. The rest of Florida is not such a Democratic happy place. Second, the older vote in Florida is something to consider. The choice will be between a serious progressive and a serious conservative. (Rubio is backed by the Club for Growth.) If you look at what happened in the NY-23, and what is happening in the Texas gubernatorial race, you'll notice that the far right wingnuts organize MUCH better than the "regular" Republicans, and their machine is nothing to scoff at. Democrats in Florida don't have that sort of organization, nor the drive to get behind a true progressive. So, I'm thinking this race is cherry red, and our money and efforts are better spent in more competitive Senate races next year. I'd like to be wrong. |
