| Notwithstanding anything that is or is not in the bill Harry Reid wants to bring to the floor, we want it to pass. This is because in spite of the abortion provision, the opt-out provision, the problems with the tax issue, and everything else we don't like in it, health care reform must not die due to Democratic obstructionism. Whatever passes, if something passes, goes to conference, and that's where we care more about the content than the passage. Here, it's not just about health care, but about the schisms in the Democratic Party. To get the bill passed there needs to be a discussion. Cloture to allow for that discussion is 60 votes. Here are the names of concern: - Blanche Lincoln
- Mary Landrieu
- Ben Nelson
- Olympia Snowe
- Susan Collins
- Joe Lieberman
There are some other people who might pop-up with problems, but the above names are the most current concern. Max Baucus' mother is very ill, although I assume he'll be able to return for the vote. Robert Byrd is not currently in the hospital, and I'm sure would be rolled in on a gurney to vote. I have some concerns about Bill Nelson, but he seems to be with the program. The question is whether Harry can hold together Blanche "tool of Walmart" Lincoln, Mary "my father is spinning in his grave" Landrieu, and Ben "never met a pharma donation I didn't like" Nelson AND get one of Snowe, Collins or TLB. The frame for both Snowe and Collins is the current state of health care IN Maine. Without the fanfare and publicity of what happened in Massachusetts, Maine also "reformed" health care on a statewide level. It has been a complete failure. The Cliff Notes version: Maine is the Charlie Brown of health care. The state’s legislators have tried for decades to fix its system, but their efforts have always fallen short: health insurance premiums are still among the least affordable in the nation, health care spending per person is among the highest and hospital emergency rooms are among the most crowded. Indeed, many overhauls to the system have done little more than squeeze a balloon — solving one problem while worsening another. [...] Maine has the nation’s oldest population, its poor are among the sickest, and its median income ranks low. It has a dominant for-profit insurance carrier, Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield in Maine, which has roughly doubled premiums in the last five years and recently appealed in court to get even higher rates. [...] [T]he state is one of 17 that limit how much insurers can charge people for being older, and it does not allow exclusions for previous illnesses — both policies that are part of national reform proposals. But one result is that premiums for younger people are relatively high. Although national proposals would require that nearly everyone get coverage or pay a penalty, Maine’s Legislature rejected such a mandate so many young people do not or cannot buy insurance — further skewing the insured pool to sicker and older people and making premiums that much higher.
Olympia Snowe was on the state committee working on reform in the 1970's, so she really knows the problems. In her heart, she knows that the only true answer is a national solution. It's unlikely that Collins and Snowe don't speak, so I assume that Collins also understands the Maine issues and potential solutions. MAINE and not partisan or non-partisan or bipartisan or anything else is the reason that Snowe voted as she did on the Baucus. Why Collins did not is a mystery. These women are Reid's best chance of "replacing" the cloture votes of Lieberman and one of the recalcitrant Democrats. Can Harry do it? If he can't, health reform dies in the Senate. No chance to fix things in committee, no chance to add amendments and gunk up the process. No filibuster. It also carries forward ramifications for 2010 and 2012 in terms of whether or not obstructionist Democrats can get re-elected, lose to a progressive primary challenge, or lose to a Republican or a Teabagger. Further, there is the issue of jobs. You know that the Senate passed unemployment extensions, but not the COBRA or fed-add in provisions. Turns out they missed a step as everything ends 31 December 2009 if the stimulus package for these things are not extended. Therefore, whatever deals Harry is cutting relative to health care occur within the frame of millions of people losing COBRA coverage on 1 January 2010, along with the millions who lose their unemployment benefits. If we lose BOTH issues, it will be a bleak night of counting votes next November. Therefore, Harry has to juggle not only the patent obstructionism of the GOP **IF** things get to the floor, but also our own party in terms of getting them there. Not to mention the issues of Thanksgiving and Christmas breaks. So, what do you think? |
