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Should Tom Corbett Quit?

by: DocJess

Wed Nov 18, 2009 at 10:36:07 AM EST


If you don't live in Pennsylvania, you might not be keeping up with the indictments.

By way of background, Tom Corbett is the current Attorney General of the state. He's squeaky clean, to the best of my knowledge. He's also running on the GOP side for governor. As prognostications go, I think he wins both the primary and the general. I'll get into that after the jump, but this is really about something else.

Last summer, Corbett indicted a number of Democratic state reps and staffers. Last week, he also indicted a number of Republicans, including John Perzel, who isn't quite in Vinnie Fumo's class, but pretty close. The charges involve fraud, embezzlement, mismanagement of government funds, offices and personnel, and, in the case of Perzel, using his powers to damage other Republicans to ensure no primary challenges. 

So here's the thing, from an editorial

In most years, it would not be a problem to run for one office while holding another. U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, the late Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll and many other prominent Pennsylvanians have done it.

This is different.

This probe has the potential to be a major step toward changing a culture of entitlement that for too long has undone the good works of our legislators. It deserves the attorney general’s full-time attention. Yet running for governor can become a nearly full-time job in itself.

Also, you have indeed followed the evidence where it led. But are the people of Pennsylvania simply to trust that you will continue to do so, even if your probe threatens to engulf a party chairman in some county crucial to your election bid, or some lawmaker whose network you need to get out the vote?

Your personal record might say yes, but remember, this scandal is about campaigning. Its prosecution needs to avoid even the perception of conflict of interest. Earlier, you said that you would consider accepting contributions from sitting lawmakers once the targets of the investigation were clear. Yet last week, you said the probe is ongoing.

You see? The ethical thorns would snag a saint.

Should he resign? Would it make a difference? Could staying in office end up hurting him?

It's an interesting conundrum. What do you think? 

DocJess :: Should Tom Corbett Quit?

For what it's worth, Corbett is the presumptive Republican nominee. He seems untouchable by Jim Gerlach, as Corbett is polling over 50%, with Gerlach down at 10%. His name recognition is high due to his statewide office, Gerlach's got problems that are, so far, under the radar, but would easily surface if Corbett needed to use them.

On the Democratic side, Onorato's poll numbers seem low compared to the strength he actually has. Here are the most recent numbers:

10/16/09 PA Rasmussen Statewide:

PA Gov Race Primary:
Dan Onorato: 19%
Jack Wagner: 14%
Joe Hoeffel: 11%
Chris Doherty: 6%
Tom Knox: 4%

Favorable/Unfavorable:
Onorato: 33%-25%
Wagner: 38%-20%
Hoeffel: 26%-30%
Doherty: 23%-28%
Knox: 21%-33%

He's got the Rendell machine behind him, great campaigning skills, has pulled the wool over most of the Western PA progressives, and he's running a tight campaign with a terrific organization. There's not a lot of daylight between his and Jack Wagner's positions, as they are both conservadems. In person, and on the trail, Onorato "comes off" better. The eastern progressives are pushing for Hoeffel, but he's a poor campaigner, has lost statewide before, and lacks the overall organization from which Onorato can pull. Doherty and Knox have failed to gain traction. Knox was an early entry into the race, but is having a lot of trouble selling himself as a populist despite being the only candidate on either side pushing back against the minimum 30% electricity rate hikes going into effect in January.

I don't see Onorato beating Corbett in the general. They're both strong candidates, their positions are similar on most issues, they're both from Western PA, and Corbett will end up selling better in the east. Finally, there is the historic party change, and the fallout from Arlen's move to the Democratic side: a lot of Pennsylvanians will want the governor's mansion in moderate Republican hands. 

 

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