10/16/09 PA Rasmussen Statewide:
PA Gov Race Primary:
Dan Onorato: 19%
Jack Wagner: 14%
Joe Hoeffel: 11%
Chris Doherty: 6%
Tom Knox: 4%
Favorable/Unfavorable:
Onorato: 33%-25%
Wagner: 38%-20%
Hoeffel: 26%-30%
Doherty: 23%-28%
Knox: 21%-33%
He's got the Rendell machine behind him, great campaigning skills, has pulled the wool over most of the Western PA progressives, and he's running a tight campaign with a terrific organization. There's not a lot of daylight between his and Jack Wagner's positions, as they are both conservadems. In person, and on the trail, Onorato "comes off" better. The eastern progressives are pushing for Hoeffel, but he's a poor campaigner, has lost statewide before, and lacks the overall organization from which Onorato can pull. Doherty and Knox have failed to gain traction. Knox was an early entry into the race, but is having a lot of trouble selling himself as a populist despite being the only candidate on either side pushing back against the minimum 30% electricity rate hikes going into effect in January.
I don't see Onorato beating Corbett in the general. They're both strong candidates, their positions are similar on most issues, they're both from Western PA, and Corbett will end up selling better in the east. Finally, there is the historic party change, and the fallout from Arlen's move to the Democratic side: a lot of Pennsylvanians will want the governor's mansion in moderate Republican hands.





