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Sunday with the Senators: What About Frank?

by: DocJess

Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 06:41:06 AM EST


This was nowhere on my radar until I received an email (H/T Helen). We're all focused on the health care vote in the Senate, but after that, we need to think about protecting our 59 or so votes (NO - I do NOT count TLB) for issues going forward. One stalwart, INCREDIBLY DELICIOUSLY PROGRESSIVE Democratic vote belongs to Frank Lautenberg. Here is an overview of his voting record. And it's a long record, beginning in 1983, and continuing to today, with a two year hiatus earlier this decade.

Frank Lautenberg is 85, and will turn 86 in January. He's a class II Senator, meaning he's not up for re-election until 2014.

Helen sent me an actuarial chart indicating that SSA says Frank only has a 55% chance of living to serve out his term. I immediately discounted the information because he's healthy for a man his age, I detest ageism, and I come from a family where people regularly live past 100. That's the personal side. 

On the political side, Bob Menedez is chair of the DSCC, and he might feel differently. The GOP hasn't won a Senate seat via election since 1972, which means most people in Jersey don't remember ever having a Republican senator representing them. 

Think Ted Kennedy, think Tim Johnson. Men who, in the face of serious incapacitation, held their Senate positions. The Senate has no minimum attendance rule. Once elected, you can serve out your term so long as you are alive. We all miss Uncle Teddy, and Johnson is back at work, having been re-elected as the Senior Senator from South Dakota.

Think also of Robert Byrd. The image burned in my mind of him is not the tapes of him filibustering back in the 60's, but rather of the frail man in a wheelchair, sitting for hours in the sun, awaiting Vicki Kennedy's limo and the buses. Waving his flag. I have an unshakable belief that through sheer force of will, Senator Byrd will stay in the Senate until he can vote for health reform. I am unconvinced that it is "his issue" or even that he has strong feelings on the issue: I believe he will vote yes, if for no other reason than to channel Ted Kennedy.

BUT...

The current law in Jersey says that the Governor can appoint to an open Senate seat, and as of January that position is in Republican hands.

Helen's question was: should Lautenberg step down and let Corzine make an appointment before he leaves office?

Interesting...

My opinion is after the jump, what's yours?

 

DocJess :: Sunday with the Senators: What About Frank?

First things first, Lautenberg may WANT to retire. He retired from the Senate in 2000, and only returned in the 2002 election when Bob Torricelli was indicted after winning the primary. There was an issue since it was theoretically too late to change the ballots, but the NJ Supreme Court ruled that the indictment gave Doug Forrester (the Republican) an unfair advantage, and the law had not covered a situation like this. SCOTUS declined to hear the GOP challenge.

If he honestly wants to retire, it's a no-brainer.

But if he wants to stay, I personally believe that's his right. He was duly elected and can serve as long as he wants. Your mileage may vary.

 

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looks like none of us as politically as savvy or motivated as GOPers, i bet they would have voted to hold the seat at any moral cost.... (0.00 / 0)
we do have quite a cast of senior senators, do we have good ones warming benches in every state? i hope so.
then again, some of these didnt look so hot 3-4 terms ago, so maybe the u.s. senate is a place you have to grow into, no matter where you start, then, when we do get a superstar, he/she, almost always runs for president:) we lost three senators to the white house in the last election! glad we have them there, but it would have been sad to weaken our senate majority. especially as obama and clinton are relatively young...

Any idea the age breakdown of both parties, and also, do we have a strong list of 35-50 yr olds who can step in the states with older guys/ladies? if so, got a list? just curious.


Four to White House (0.00 / 0)
Four, actually: Obama, Biden, Clinton, and Salazar.

[ Parent ]
here is a nice snapshot, but it doesnt answer my questions (0.00 / 0)
ahh good ol wiki! (0.00 / 0)
http://www.senate.gov/referenc...

here are the over 70 crowd:

Robert Byrd (D-WV) 91 November 20, 1917(1917-11-20)
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) 85 January 23, 1924(1924-01-23)
Daniel Inouye (D-HI) 85 September 7, 1924(1924-09-07)
Daniel Akaka (D-HI) 85 September 11, 1924(1924-09-11)
Arlen Specter (D-PA) 79 February 12, 1930(1930-02-12)
Jim Bunning (R-KY) 78 October 23, 1931(1931-10-23)
Richard Lugar (R-IN) 77 April 4, 1932(1932-04-04)
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) 76 June 22, 1933(1933-06-22)
Chuck Grassley (R-IA) 76 September 17, 1933(1933-09-17)
Bob Bennett (R-UT) 76 September 18, 1933(1933-09-18)
Orrin Hatch (R-UT) 75 March 22, 1934(1934-03-22)
Richard Shelby (R-AL) 75 May 6, 1934(1934-05-06)
Carl Levin (D-MI) 75 June 28, 1934(1934-06-28)
Jim Inhofe (R-OK) 74 November 17, 1934(1934-11-17)
Herb Kohl (D-WI) 74 February 7, 1935(1935-02-07)
Pat Roberts (R-KS) 73 April 20, 1936(1936-04-20)
George Voinovich (R-OH) 73 July 15, 1936(1936-07-15)
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) 73 July 20, 1936(1936-07-20)
John McCain (R-AZ) 73 August 29, 1936(1936-08-29)
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) 72 June 18, 1937(1937-06-18)
Roland Burris (D-IL) 72 August 3, 1937(1937-08-03)
Thad Cochran (R-MS) 71 December 7, 1937(1937-12-07)
Paul G. Kirk (D-MA) 71 January 18, 1938


Specter & Feinstein (0.00 / 0)
Question 1: Will Specter, with his age and health history, decide two tough races (primary and general) in the next year is just not worth it and decide not to run after all?

Question 2: Does Feinstein, at age 76, really want to be Governor of California into her 80's?


[ Parent ]
It's not just age.... (0.00 / 0)
Paul Wellstone was in his 50's when his plane crashed, killing him and 7 others. Who would have imagined him dying so young, or being replaced by Dean Barkley? Or Harris Wofford when John Heinz was killed in a chopper crash? Heinz was also in his 50's.

You don't know who will die, and why. You don't know who will replace them.

Who could have imagined Al Franken being elected (say, 5 years ago) and being the great Senator that he is?

The idea of "people in the pipeline" is good and important -- and it means that LOCAL elections count, and "training" at the state level matters -- you never know when a seat will need to be filled, and we don't do enough to "bring along" the next generation.  


Lautenberg is in a unique situation (0.00 / 0)
Obviously, Lautenberg can stay in his seat as long as he wants. It is his. But if I were him I would resign. He has all the more reason to do so now than he did in 2000.

The only other people in the same boat as Lautenberg are Webb, Warner and Menendez in that if they resign today they will be replaced by the choice of a Dem governor but they will be replaced by the choice of a GOP governor next year. However, Webb, Menendez and Warner all have 97%+ survival probabilities which is a far cry for the 55.09% figure for Lautenberg.

Presumably if Lautenberg resigned now he could have a major input on who would replace him.


How many... (0.00 / 0)
How many Republican senators do we currently have that (if they died or resigned) could be replaced by a Democratic Governor? Or are there any at all?

How many states are there that allow governors to appoint senate seat replacements?  Don't some of the states have a law that states there has to be a special election? (like Massachusetts had)

Anyone know?

Thanks in advance.


[ Parent ]
What I found so far... (0.00 / 0)
From WaPo:

.... according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 34 states provide for pure governor-knows-best appointments. Five others give governors the power with a twist: California and New Jersey offer governors leeway to call special elections, while Hawaii, Utah and Wyoming require that the replacement be of the same political party as the departing senator.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

--------------------------
That's good news regarding Hawaii since Hawaii has a Republican governor and both Senator Inouye and Senator Akaka are democrats and both are 85 years old!

.


[ Parent ]
Arizona (0.00 / 0)
I seem to remember that Arizona also has a same-party law for Senate replacement. http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/ho...

[ Parent ]
hawaii has a GOP gov? (0.00 / 0)
how did that happen, the most progressive state in the union and the dems did something so dumb as to lose it?

how did i miss that? and she has been in office since 2002? wow! i guess i forget about hawaii....


How deep blue states get Republican governors (0.00 / 0)
Deep blue states often elect Republicans, and ruby red states often elect Democrats.

In a deep blue state, the Democrats tend to be more extreme, and the Republicans more moderate. In ruby red, it's the opposite. Here in New York, for example, most Republicans are socially moderate, or even liberal, and stake their Republicanism on issues like taxes.

So Governors' races aren't nationalized, and I hope it stays that way. I don't want my choice of state-level offices constrained because I'm worried about what they might do to the House or Senate. Personally, it seems highly unlikely I'll ever vote for a Republican for President, or even for the Senate or House, but I have voted for Republicans for governor and mayor, and at some point I may again.

What we really need is to get rid of these governor-knows-best appointments. They're nothing but trouble.


[ Parent ]
Pushing for a new law (0.00 / 0)
From DailyKos:

Trying to avoid an unexpected party switch should eighty-something Senator Frank Lautenberg be forced to leave office, New Jersey Assemblyman Frank McKeon is pushing a new law which would compel the Governor to appoint someone who is of the same party as the departing Senator (as is done is states like Wyoming). Not surprisingly, incoming GOP Governor-Elect Chris Christie is not fond of the idea, calling it "garbage."





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