| Depending on how you count it, there are somewhere between 15.1 million (U3) and 25 million (U6) people currently unemployed in the United States. The people affected by these numbers is far higher, as most people live in households, and therefore the loss of income is felt not just by the unemployed person, but also spouses, children and other dependents. The Federal government, through the stimulus package enacted in February, has been sending additional $25/week checks to those people who qualify under state laws for unemployment insurance (UI), and extended the period of time that people could collect UI, predicated on state unemployment percentage, and state participation. In addition, the stimulus package allowed for people to have 65% of the COBRA payment underwritten. That is, the employer would pay 65% of the premium, and then could deduct that amount from the payroll taxes it owed to the government. These things are set to expire at the end of the year. The House has already passed a UI extension (although not a COBRA extension) and yesterday, the Senate voted 87-13 for cloture so that their version of the extension could come to the floor. Not for a vote, mind you, but for a discussion. Voting against: Sen. John Barrasso [R, WY]
Sen. Christopher Bond [R, MO]
Sen. Jim Bunning [R, KY]
Sen. Thomas Coburn [R, OK]
Sen. John Cornyn [R, TX]
Sen. Jim DeMint [R, SC]
Sen. Michael Enzi [R, WY]
Sen. Lindsey Graham [R, SC]
Sen. Orrin Hatch [R, UT]
Sen. James Inhofe [R, OK]
Sen. Mike Johanns [R, NE]
Sen. Jefferson Sessions [R, AL]
Sen. David Vitter [R, LA] The only surprise to me about that list is that there aren't more Republicans on it (including TLB Lieberman.) I'm wondering about the COBRA extension, and what its sunset would mean to the health care debate. Info and charts after the jump. |
In general, UI pays half of someone's paycheck up to a stated maximum amount. This varies state-by-state, and the formulae for calculation can be byzantine. But let's go with the average. This is a chart of average UI benefits by state: 
This chart shows maximum weekly benefits: (Base data from this source). I couldn't fit all the states on the legend - you can check the source for your state. And yes, that last bar on the right is $900/week in Massachusetts. 
With health insurance costs averaging $600/month for an individual and $1300/month for a family, it's not hard to see that COBRA becomes unaffordable for many people on UI, even if those benefits are extended. So let's play with numbers. Not everyone on unemployment gets COBRA since some people are still covered by a spouse, or are young and health enough to risk going without, or worked for a company that didn't provide health insurance. Let's peg that number at 25%, meaning 75% will take COBRA. Then, let's go with the U3 number, and assume that the unemployed person carries one other person on his/her policy. This should average out between those who are single, and those who are carrying multiple children on the policy. 15.1 million x 75% x 2 = 22.65 million If all of those people lose their COBRA because they can pay the full boat, that is a huge increase to the currently uninsured 47 million. Almost a 50% increase in fact - close to 70 million people, and over 20% of the total population. The White House is looking at extending the premium assistance. It doesn't look good for them if the numbers rise that much. By the same token, the more uninsured people, the greater the pressure for a Public Option, if not Single Payer. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. By the way, for those of you who want to say that unemployment is improving as the number of new unemployed is decreasing, so long as the number of newly unemployed people exceeds the job creation rate, the total number of unemployed (U3 and U6) will continue to rise.
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