| Yesterday we polled on next Tuesday's elections, and the overwhelming majority of junkies (that would be 97.3 of us junkies) believe we'll pick up NY-23. We like that because we're Democrats, and haven't held the seat since it was redistricted in the early '90's. But there is another story here, and it relates to the soul of the Republican Party as they find their footing. We've talked before about whether the possibility that the Perry-Hutchison gubernatorial primary will be a parable for the battle between the right and the far right, but this is certainly the opening act. MUCH more so than either New Jersey or Virginia. John McHugh had held the seat since the redistricting in the early 2000's, and as the IIE goes, was a moderate Republican. The special election next week is to fill his seat, since he was appointed a few months ago to be Secretary of the Army. There is a Republican candidate: Dierdre Scozzafava. She is not only the GOP candidate, but also the Working Families Party. (Remember, you can run on multiple lines in NY.) The REALLY interesting thing about Scozzafava is her list of endorsers: - Newt Gingrich
- Peter King
- NRA
- Log Cabin Republicans
- NY State United Teachers
- Markos Moulitsas
Yup, your read that right. Kos of Daily Kos endorsed Scozzafava. His bottom line is his conviction that she is more liberal than Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate. (She supports same-sex marriage, Owens does not. Both are pro-choice). Meanwhile, there is Doug Hoffman. He's running on the Conservative Party line. His endorsers include: - Club for Growth (which threw $300,000 in his advertising pot)
- Susan B Anthony Candidate Fund
- Concerned Women PAC
- Fred Thompson
- Sarah Palin
- Michele Bachmann
- Rush Limbaugh
- Tim Pawlenty
- Marilyn Musgrave
The polling? 
Interesting, isn't it? Not the Basswood numbers, they're strictly the province of the people who already spent a quarter of a million on this election, but the next two polls. There are still a lot of undecideds (even though they don't show in the Siena poll, they're there, since 29 + 33 + 23 still leaves 15). In addition, below the topline in the Sienna poll, Hoffman is leading the Independents. Could Hoffman win? Statistically, but its unlikely. (Although Owens has started attacking Hoffman in ads). The really interesting thing will be the final numbers, hopefully broken out by party thanks to exit polling. As for registrations: Party registration figures — always a lagging indicator — favor the GOP in the district, but the Republican advantage in the 23rd district is less than the GOP advantage in the 20th district, where Democrat Scott Murphy narrowly won a late-March special election. According to the New York State Board of Elections, as of April 1, 43.1 percent of active voters were Republicans in the 23rd, while 31 percent were Democrats — a 12.1-point advantage for the GOP. In contrast, in the 20th district, Republicans held a larger 14.7-point advantage, 41.5 percent to 26.8 percent. In both districts, the GOP edge has been eroding. In the 23rd, the Republican registration advantage was 14.6 points in November 2006 and 16.2 points in November 2002. So, recent registration trends clearly favor Democrats. President Barack Obama carried the district last year with 52 percent, compared to 47 percent for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
Just one week to go, and then we'll all know. |
