In the spring of 2008, a book was published called The Real McCain. There was an associated web site. The idea was simple: take things John had honestly said and done, and make them publicly available. Good stuff.
Now Joe Sestak has taken that idea and run with it. He's launched a real Arlen Specter web site, Right now, the featured video is connected to asking voters to choose which of Arlen's votes was the worst. And it's TOUGH to pick. You can view the video below, and vote here.
Incredibly effective.
Remember that Pennsylvania has closed primaries, and many Republicans switched over to the Democratic party to vote in the 2008 elections. There were two groups of Republicans who switched parties: the moderates who saw in either Obama or Clinton a candidate they could legitimately support. The others were "spoilers" who actually switched parties to vote in the primary for the candidate they thought would be weakest against McCain in the fall. The likelihood is that this second group has already switched back, or will in time for the 2010 primaries. For the first group, they, like Arlen, are no longer a true part of the current Republican Party, and are against the Iraq War, would never have voted for Spunky, and feel somewhat strongly about many of the items listed on the video. It will be a hard hill for Arlen to climb for the primary: very difficult for him to capture this audience.
The other aspect is that there are moderate Republicans who are now registered Democrats who DO support the "old Arlen". Their position is interesting. They cannot trust that the "new Arlen" will cling to the "moderate" positions and not (in their minds) sell out to the progressives. If they see the video, they will likely support his "old" positions, but may well switch back to the Republican Party to vote for Toomey because they honestly believe Arlen has changed. Then again, they may stay with the Democrats and hope that he goes back to being the way he was.
For what it's worth, I don't know a single Democrat supporting Arlen. I know they exist, I just don't know any personally. There is a lot of Sestak excitement amoung my Democratic friends.
Amoung the Republicans, however, I actually know some who are thinking of switching parties to vote for Arlen in the primaries because they cannot abide Pat Toomey. Remember, I live in a relatively blue (for Pennsylvania) area, so my scope is limited. But this would really turn things on their ear. The people I have spoken with will not vote Toomey in the general, whether or not they switch parties for the primary. When I've asked them what they will do in November if the choice is Toomey or Sestak, about half indicate they'll skip that line and just vote the gubernatorial and Congressional lines. Most of the rest are unsure.
Either way, it looks to me like the seat stays Democratic. That's not my feeling about the gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania, and I'll have a post up on that in a little bit.
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