|  I was watching clips from the Rush Limbaugh interview with NBC, as, of course, presented by Keith Olbermann. And I started thinking NOT about who is in charge over there in wingnutland, but about Texas.
I've written a lot about Rick Perry: his disdain for education, his refusal to accept science, his perversion of the law and justice in the Cameron Todd Willingham case. And most of all, about the secession comment. Rick was once a moderate (as in, he wanted HPV vaccines mandatory) but he's swung uber right. I'd consider Kay Bailey Hutchison right wing, but compared to Rick's recent actions, she's coming off moderate. The most recent polling is from Rasmussen in September, and shows Rick at 38% and Kay at 40%. Teabagger Debra Medina polls at 3%. (she has Ron Paul's support, although not his official endorsement.) So the question becomes, is the Texas Republican primary the first true battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party? No major endorsements are out yet, so we don't know how Bush, Gingrich, Cheney, Delay, Limbaugh, Beck, Palin and the rest will align. (I'm betting Spunky comes out for Rick, if for no other reason than he was with her when she ostensibly went into labor and flew home to Alaska. Sorry, couldn't help myself.) The thing of note is that the Republican primaries are open, meaning non-Republicans can vote in them. And while Rick is shoring up the base, Kay is going after the moderates, and possibly even Independents who don't want to see Texas blue. In a recent speech, she said: "If Texas goes Democrat, we will never elect a Republican president again -- not ever," she said. "We cannot do it."
That's scary to a lot of people who believe they "vote for the candidate, not the party" and want to ensure that both parties survive. To win, Kay will need not just rhetoric, but an issue or two. Rick may have handed her one in the Willingham case. He originally fired 3 of 9 Forensic Board members, and then fired the last he could. (The other 5 are not appointed by the governor.) New information indicates that even before Willingham's execution, Rick was made aware that the evidence had been tainted, and the analysis should have been discredited. Thus, the firing of the board is not just to protect his previous decision to not stay the execution, but may also be to prevent a gross miscarriage of justice from coming to light. Kay's on that. "I am a supporter of the death penalty, but I also believe that 100 percent of the people who also believe the death penalty is a deterrent think we need to have all of the evidence and all of the technology to assure that when such a punishment is given that we have all of the evidence and the capability to assure that the person is guilty. "I definitely disagree with the governor changing the commission just before the hearing that would perhaps lend some light on the technology that would determine whether arson was a factor. "It's another case where the governor is trying to maintain a loyalty to him but not to the responsibility person on the commission had taken to the people of Texas and our judicial system."
Imagine what she'll do when she gets wind of the fact that 88 minutes before the execution, Rick received a fax indicating Willingham was innocent. The primary is not that far off: early voting starts in four short months and Kay still has to vote yea or nay on health reform. That may seem like a no-brainer, but if she wants to be a "moderate" and the bill is going to pass anyway, it might make her get on the bandwagon. Another question is the effect that Debra Medina will have. Sure, she's a wingnut and a secessionist and all that. If Ron Paul actually endorses her, and uses his incredible internet money-raising prowess on her behalf, could she take enough votes from Rick to give the Republican nod to Kay? Could she take enough from both sides to force a run-off? If there is a run-off, is it possible that the Democrats would come out in force and all of a sudden Debra Medina ends up being the Republican candidate? Remember, it's not only an open primary, but an open run-off. If I were a Democrat in Texas, I'd consider voting in a Republican run-off for the candidate least likely to win against any Democrat, but that's just me. Still, the overriding question is whether Kay can defeat Rick, running as what passes for a moderate in wingnutland. And if so, what does that mean for other Republican primaries? And for the 2012 race? One scenario (since I truly doubt that Debra Medina ends up winning the Republican primary. She's got as much chance as Kinky Friedman does of winning the Democratic primary) is that Rick wins the primary, but goes down in defeat to the Democrat because Texas is not as wingnut as we all think it is. Alternately, that Kay wins the primary and then loses the general because Texas IS as wingnut as we all think, and the right stays home in protest over a candidate too "liberal" for their tastes. Texas is trending blue. Whether the state Democrats can get it together enough to rally behind whoever wins the Democratic primary and actually spread their grasp beyond Austin, and much of Dallas and Houston is left to be seen. But within the Republican party, this may well be a bellwether for 2012. If Rick can't hold the Texas state house, it's looking pretty bad for them. |
