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09 Update

by: Matt

Fri Oct 09, 2009 at 07:22:56 AM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch House Forecast, a summary of the best House forecasts.

House Forecast: 253.8 (-3.2), amazingly, essentially no change from the last forecast on July 1. How is this possible in face of all the gloom and doom of predictions that the Democrats will lose 20-40 seats?

Looking at the macro factors: history of off-year elections, congressional generic ballots, and the general sense that the GOP is primed for gains, it's easy to understand the worst-case predictions. But when it comes to actually identifying specific seats that will be lost, our three major forecasters just can't bring themselves to actually identify a large number of Democratic incumbents who are in significant danger of losing their seats.

Will that change in the future? In a upcoming post, we'll show that most movement in these numbers occur in the last 6 weeks of the campaign, and that the numbers here could change significantly a year from now.

(See the latest Senate Forecast here)

The House Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 House.

The House Forecast for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a race that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat.

The House seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Only those seats that have at least one of the rankings showing the seat as Lean or Tossup are shown.

DemConWatch House Forecast

	Current/Avg.	Cook	Rothenberg	CQ
		10/8/09	9/23/09	10/8/09
Dem-Strong	38	10	20	9
Dem-Lean		19	3	30
Tossup		13	21	3
Rep-Lean		10	2	15
Rep-Strong	21	7	13	2
Sum		33.7	33.3	37.5
Dem Gain/Loss	-3.2	-4.3	-4.7	-0.5
Total (257 Dems Current)	253.8	252.7	252.3	256.5

AR-2 (Snyder)	D	DL	D	D
AZ-5 (Mitchell)	D	D	D	DL
CT-4 (Himes)	D	D	D	DL
GA-12 (Barrow)	D	D	D	DL
GA-8 (Marshall)	D	D	D	DL
MI-9 (Peters)	D	D	D	DL
NC-11 (Shuler)	D	D	D	DL
NJ-3 (Adler)	D	D	D	DL
NY-19 (Hall)	D	D	D	DL
NY-20 (Murphy)	D	D	D	DL
NY-25 (Maffei)	D	D	DL	D
OH-16 (Boccieri)	D	DL	D	D
OH-18 (Space)	D	DL	D	D
TX-17 (Edwards)	D	DL	D	D
VA-2 (Nye)	D	DL	D	D
DE-AL (Castle)	R	DL	D	DL
NC-8 (Kissell)	D	DL	D	DL
NV-3 (Titus)	D	DL	D	DL
NY-29 (Massa)	D	DL	D	DL
WI-8 (Kagen)	D	DL	D	DL
LA-2 (Cao)	R	T	D	D
AL-5 (Griffith)	D	DL	DL	DL
NY-24 (Arcuri)	D	DL	DL	DL
IL-14 (Foster)	D	DL	T	D
CO-4 (Markey)	D	DL	T	DL
FL-24 (Kosmas)	D	DL	T	DL
MI-7 (Schauer)	D	DL	T	DL
MS-1 (Childers)	D	DL	T	DL
NH-1 ((Shea-Porter)	D	DL	T	DL
OH-1 (Driehaus)	D	DL	T	DL
NH-2 (Open)	D	T	T	D
AL-2 (Bright)	D	T	T	DL
FL-8 (Grayson)	D	T	T	DL
IL-10 (Kirk)	R	T	T	DL
NM-2 (Teague)	D	T	T	DL
OH-15 (Kilroy)	D	T	T	DL
PA-6 (Gerlach)	R	T	T	DL
PA-7 (Open)	D	T	T	DL
VA-5 (Perriello)	D	T	T	DL
ID-1 (Minnick)	D	T	T	T
MD-1 (Kratovil)	D	T	T	T
NY-23 (vacant)	R	T	T	T
LA-3 (Melancon)	D	RL	T	RL
WA-8 (Reichert)	R	RL	T	RL
CA-3 (Lungren)	R	RL	RL	RL
CA-44 (Calvert)	R	RL	RL	RL
MI-11 (McCotter)	R	RL	R	RL
MN-6 (Bachmann)	R	RL	R	RL
NE-2 (Terry)	R	RL	R	RL
OH-2 (Schmidt)	R	RL	R	RL
AK-AL (Young)	R	R	R	RL
AL-3 (Rogers)	R	R	R	RL
FL-12 (Open)	R	R	R	RL
MN-3 (Paulsen)	R	R	R	RL
NJ-7 (Lance)	R	R	R	RL
OH-12 (Tiberi)	R	RL	R	R
PA-15 (Dent)	R	RL	R	R
SC-1 (Brown)	R	R	R	RL
SC-2 (Wilson)	R	R	R	RL

Matt :: 2010 House Forecast - 10/9/09 Update

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2010 House Forecast - 10/9/09 Update | 14 comments

AR-3 (0.00 / 0)

I have some news about my district, the third district of Arkansas. It is represented by John Boozman, and is considered a safe Republican seat. However, as top-tier a Democrat as exists in this district is entering the race, David Whitaker. He was assistant city attorney to Fayetteville, AR for the past 8 years, Air Force veteran, and chairman of the Washington County Democratic Central Committee, as well as director of Washington County Domestic Violence Task Force. For him to win, it's almost like climbing up a mountain with no footholds, but it's not impossible. So I've asked to volunteer for his campaign, maybe it will be considered RL sometime.

"Is profit and greed the only conceit on a scale between mere prosperity and inhumanity? It may well be." -Bad Religion

by: wecanhope08 @ Fri Oct 09, 2009 at 21:44:39 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

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we have a great guy, chris craft, running in fl-16 (foleys old seat) (0.00 / 0)

does he not have a chance to unseat rooney?

by: UplandPoet @ Sat Oct 10, 2009 at 00:37:37 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

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http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/22758 (0.00 / 0)

by: UplandPoet @ Sat Oct 10, 2009 at 01:14:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

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sadly Chris dropped out, it will be rooney (R) again (0.00 / 0)

I am curious, though, i wonder how many of the 14 we are looking to lose this november are DINOs? will either house be dramatically effected by the projected shift, if it holds, or will it simply clarify what already exists?

by: UplandPoet @ Mon Apr 05, 2010 at 19:31:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ha! (0.00 / 0)

I wonder what the 2010 predictions for NY-23 will be now? :)

by: Leah @ Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 04:19:50 AM UTC

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leah, i am sure it is not a sure thing (0.00 / 0)

to get a dem reelected, but maybe he has a shot

by: UplandPoet @ Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 10:42:26 AM UTC

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It may not be there (0.00 / 0)

I keep hearing that the census will remove a seat from NY, and this one will be it. I don't know how everyone knows that, but it's being treated as fact.

by: SarahLawrence Scott @ Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 12:52:52 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Well...2010 yes, beyond that, probably not (0.00 / 0)

The seat will be up next year like every other House seat. But beyond that, the reason for the presumed loss of the seat is that CW says that NY will lose a seat in the 2010 census. This is the most likely seat to go away if one seat is lost, based on the party make-up of both state houses and governor's mansion, as well as the overall Congressional delegation. Further, the demographics indicate that this is the part of the state that has lost population relative to the downstate areas, and thus pulling off of the 23rd is amoungst the easiest ways to balance out the required number of people per district.

Further, the land area currently contained is often redistricted (for a variety of reasons) so they just start looking here by habit. (I made up that last one -- it is the most redistricted, but I doubt anything like this is done by habit.)

The jockeying of gerrymandered lines is, sadly, politically dictated. And the powers that be in NY are committed to doing what they can to make Democratic areas stronger, and allow them to "eat" any district that might trend Republican. Currently there are two Republican Congressmen from NY: King in the 3rd and Lee in the 26th. It won't be geographically possible to split up the 3rd, because of the population density of the Island. You could make the case for the 26th being absorbed, except for the dearth of population density there, although its very believable that the borders of the 26th shift east, and the 23rd ends up absorbed.

by: DocJess @ Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 13:36:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What about Bachman? (0.00 / 0)

Is her seat really as safe as it seems? I read that she barely won and has lost popularity since then on account of being completely insane, and voting against the interest of her district IE foreclosure relief.

What do the experts (aka, DCW) think about the chances of picking her off?

Please continue this conversation if you want by finding me on twitter @Lord_Chadeous

by: ChadCo @ Mon Nov 09, 2009 at 07:57:27 AM UTC

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It's going to be fun (0.00 / 0)

It's going to be fun watching the house races next year!
I've never paid much attention to them in the past.

I've never heard of most of those folks on the list.

Hopefully Alan Grayson and Joseph Cao will win
AND
Michele Bachmann and Joe Wilson will lose :)

by: Leah @ Mon Nov 09, 2009 at 08:29:05 AM UTC

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What about Bachman? (0.00 / 0)

What do the experts (aka, DCW) think about the chances of picking her off?

Please continue this conversation if you want by finding me on twitter @Lord_Chadeous

by: ChadCo @ Mon Nov 09, 2009 at 07:57:27 AM UTC

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Another NY-23 (0.00 / 0)

Looks like another repeat of NY-23 with the TeaParty siphoning off votes from the GOP will happen in TN-8
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

January 11, 2010 3:07 PM

Network computer consultant Donn Janes, who filed for Tennessee's 8th district race as a Republican in August, has decided to instead run as an Independent Tea Party candidate this cycle.
SNIP
Democratic strategists said Monday the move will help their chances to hold the seat of retiring Rep. John Tanner (D) by siphoning off Republican votes in the general election.
SNIP

by: Leah @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 04:40:13 AM UTC

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Update coming? (0.00 / 0)

About time for a House and Senate Update soon, huh?

by: Leah @ Tue Apr 06, 2010 at 06:46:09 AM UTC

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yes (0.00 / 0)

yes