| Who is the most vulnerable member of Congress? According to Roll Call (sub req'd) it's Anh "Jospeh" Cao (R-LA). Before we get to their view of the upcoming race, let's review. Cao ran as a Republican, but when he was elected over William Jefferson "that $90k in the freezer is not mine" Jefferson, he was kinda-sorta an Independent. About two months after he was elected, his constituents tried to have him recalled for his position on the stimulus bill. As Matt supposed at the time, it turned out to not be a legal filing. Yeah, but, the intent was there. He hasn't been in the House long, but he hasn't actually accomplished anything yet. So what is going on now? State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) has challenged Cao. His opening salvo was that Cao has done one thing since in the House: threatened the lives of every person in the district: If he was successful in blocking the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, then absolutely the city would be less safe, [...] In that we had millions and millions of dollars for coastal restoration, and our coast is our first line of defense in terms of a storm. If you’re going to fight against money for coastal restoration, for flood protection ... then you are jeopardizing the lives of the people in the 2nd Congressional district.
You can read all about Richmond here. He had run in the Democratic primary for the seat now held by Cao. He came in third. "Cash" Jefferson won, but I think Louisiana law precludes him from running again until his home address is no longer prison. Second place went to Byron Lee, who has endorsed Richmond for the 2010 race. There may be other Democrats running for the seat. And any one of them would have a good chance of capturing the district. My guess is that had Cash lost the primary, any other Democrat would have won the low-turnout election last December. And believe it or not, even under indictment, Cash almost won, capturing 46.8% of the vote to Cao's 49.5%. The split in last year's Presidential election was more pronounced. Barack Obama trounced John McCain 75%-23%. Maybe this will be the most likely Democratic pick-up seat, maybe not. But it is certainly in the running. |
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