Know Your Enemy, Know Your Hero: Where the Senators Stand

Alphabet (0.00 / 0)

Nelson (FL) and Nelson (NE) should be alphabetized under N, not B.

I note that Udall (CO) and Udall (NM) are correctly sorted.

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by: nn26376 @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 18:25:29 PM CDT

I do,.. unfortunately (0.00 / 0)

Unfortunately I know where my senators stand.. I am from the state of Tennessee, where I am pretty sure I am the only progressive.. :-(  Ok.. maybe not the only, but sure as heck the minority.  I just finished writing Corker, for the 2nd time this year on healthcare.  But I am very sick of the "We want to fix it, but have absolutely no ideas of our own" republicans.  Alexander and Corker say they want to fix it, but have no suggestions as to what they would want to see done.  Ugh....

DocJess.. I am thinking of you and your puppy! I hope your little pup gets well soon!

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by: kat @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 18:46:28 PM CDT

Thanks Kat! (0.00 / 0)

I (and Olivia) appreciate the kind thoughts.

And I'm not recommending this for a day at the state capitol, because doing something like this would be WRONG. This is just showing how wrong it is.

But it made me think -- walking with a sandwich board "How many more need to die while you dither?" or "Bob Corker has great health insurance, but wants to make sure that you never do...." (You can replace "Bob Corker" with "Lamar Alexander" or whomever....)

Just a thought if you have a free day, and absolutely nothing else to do.  

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by: DocJess @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 19:20:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Analysis (0.00 / 0)

I count 39:27 in favor from your list.

The gigantic question is whether 50 is needed or 60? Will those opposed to a public option filibuster a bill with a public option? Republicans mostly will, but will Democrats?

So first, let's see about getting to 50:

Kerry is "easy"--he's just being cagey by not announcing yet, but I have to believe he'd vote for it if it came down to it.

Klobuchar, Kohl, Wyden, and Carper also seem likely. Now we're at 44.

Others that seem gettable: Begich, Byrd, Tester, and Nelson of Florida. That brings us to 48.

Now the key swing votes: Feinstein, Conrad, Pryor, Bayh, Lincoln, Warner. Think we can get three of those six (figuring one of the Senators I've already counted doesn't actually come along). Seems possible.

So 50 is in reach, although not easy.

But in order for this to work, the principle has to be established that you don't filibuster your own party. Any Democrat who dares to filibuster a bill most Democrats support should have to stand on the Senate floor and explain themselves. Endlessly. No "pocket filibusters"--if they care that much, they have to play Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.

Get the 50, and whip the other Democrats to allow the vote, and it's passed the Senate.

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by: SarahLawrence Scott @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 19:27:11 PM CDT

Gee, Scott, I take exception... (0.00 / 0)

First off, if they can't get to 60, there's a good chance that Harry Reid won't schedule. So you're right, people need to agree to not filibuster AND both Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd's health need to ensure that they can both attend the vote. Remember, right now, we're at 59 - I don't know that Ted is well enough to fly in for a day, nor if Byrd's health will hold.

AS for your take on the people: Wyden has a competing bill that he thinks is better. It won't pass, and there is a real question about whether or not he'd vote for a public option without the caveats he wants. Remember, he comes from Oregon, where they have a system in place, and he likes it.

Tester and (Ben) Nelson have both given indications that they will side with the insurance companies and big Pharma.

Conrad is one of the blue dogs actively working against a public option.

Begich is untested, but perhaps your faith is not misplaced.

Pryor and Lincoln have no constituent reason to vote for a public option, they are both, especially Lincoln, beholden to other Arkansas groups for their $$.

But I think we CAN get to 50, and use Senate rules for a straight up or down vote to pass, if we can get the compromise bill there, and if it includes a good public option.

We'll see how summer recess goes.

By the way, I'm glad you're a fan of Mr Smith (smile, wink)

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by: DocJess @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 19:37:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wyden (0.00 / 0)

It would take a special pettiness to decide "my bill didn't pass, so I'm not voting for yours." From Wyden's point of view, once the "perfect" is off the table, you don't think he'd vote for the "good"? Of course he can't say that now, because it undermines his own bill.

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by: SarahLawrence Scott @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 19:48:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Harry Reid (0.00 / 0)

What was the point of Reid putting the health care reconciliation deal in place if Reid is too much of a tool to use it?

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by: ChadCo @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:45:09 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

50 is Needed (in theory) (0.00 / 0)

My memory is that when they passed the budget, they included health care but not climate change in the budget resolution.  Under Senate rules, you can't fillibuster a budget reconciliation bill.  Thus, if push came to shove, health care could be passed by 50 votes.  Several of the moderate democrats, however, want to make a full effort at passing a bi-partisan bill outside the reconciliation process.

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by: tmess2 @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 23:23:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

So this is the part of the sausage-making I don't understand yet.... (0.00 / 0)

In order to get Reid's precious bi-partisan effort, would they decide to try to pass some watered-down Finance Committee version in the full Senate, but then if/when it falls short they could take up a much better version with a public option with teeth in it (think House version)and pass it with just 51 votes (or 50 with Biden breaking the tie?) in a budget resolution process?

Is that how it works?

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by: LindaS @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 19:20:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

More yes's? (0.00 / 0)

According to Dr. Dean's web site, there are a few more yes's:

Johnson, Kerry, Klobuchar, Kohl, and Specter. But maybe some of those are the wishy-washy yes's you haven't counted.

But in any case, in my analysis above I left off Johnson and Specter, because I'd read elsewhere they were a yes. On that basis, they must be at least considered "gettable." That makes 50 that much more achievable...

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by: SarahLawrence Scott @ Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 19:40:47 PM CDT

Specter (0.00 / 0)

I don't count Specter because PJV did an interview with him about a week ago where he truly vacillated on a public option, as he did also in two speeches he gave here locally in early July.

Further, when I've called his office, they won't commit without a lot of "well, the Senator would like to see everyone have the same health care that he has, and he likes the public option, but everything is still on the table, so he is still considering all the potential options."

I know he'll be asked at Netroots, and both his and Sestak's feet will be to the fire.

I have to pull the chart and re-do it since nn2636 pointed out I need to move the Nelsons. I'll get that done later today, and add the other updates. But I call Arlen's office every few days on this issue, and until they make me happy, he doesn't get the nod.  

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by: DocJess @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 03:44:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]