| Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table. Senate Forecast: 61.7 (+1.7), up from 61.5 (+2.5)  The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast, and assume, of course, that Franken is seated in Minnesota). Lots of changes since our first forecast on Mar 23. We've added two new forecasts, OpenLeft and CQ. And, of course, lots of ratings changes. Specter's party switch is reflected by the move of his seat from mostly RL to mostly DL (Ridge's withdrawal is not reflected in any of the ratings yet), and that our current base is now 60 seats. (Again, assuming Franken). But the upgrade of Specter's seat was offset somewhat by Chris Dodd's seat (CT) moving into DL range, and that bright R under OpenLeft in DE is not a good sign - expect other forecasts to quickly move that seat into the DL/T range. The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle. The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.
| DemConWatch |
| Senate Forecast |
| | Current/Avg. | Crystal | OpenLeft | CQ | Cook | Rothenberg | DCW | SSP | | | | | 2/26/09 | 5/6/09 | 4/28/09 | 4/28/09 | 4/28/09 | 4/28/09 | 4/28/09 | | | Dem-Strong | 17 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 16 | | | Dem-Lean | | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | | | Tossup | | 8 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 5 | | | Rep-Lean | | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | | | Rep-Strong | 19 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 12 | | | Dem '10 Projection | 19.7 | 19 | 19.2 | 19.6 | 19.8 | 19.9 | 20.3 | 20.3 | | | Dem '12/'14 Seats | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | | | Dem Senate Projection | 61.7 | 61 | 61.2 | 61.6 | 61.8 | 61.9 | 62.3 | 62.3 | | | Dem-Gain | 1.7 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | | | | | | CA (Boxer) | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | | | HI (Inouye) | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | | | IN (Bayh) | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | | | MD (Mikulski) | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | | | ND (Dorgan) | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | | | NY (Schumer) | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | | | OR (Wyden) | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | | | VT (Leahy) | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | | | WA (Murray) | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | | | WI (Feingold) | D | D | D | DL | D | D | D | D | | | AR (Lincoln) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | DL | D | | | NY (Gillibrand) | D | DL | DL | DL | D | D | D | D | | | DE (Kaufman) | D | D | R | D | D | D | D | D | | | PA (Specter) | D | RL | D | DL | DL | D | D | D | | | CO (Bennet) | D | T | DL | D | DL | DL | D | DL | | | NV (Reid) | D | DL | DL | DL | D | T | DL | D | | | CT (Dodd) | D | D | T | T | D | T | D | DL | | | IL (Burris) | D | T | D | T | T | DL | D | D | | | MO (Open) | R | T | DL | T | T | T | T | T | | | FL (Open) | R | T | DL | T | T | T | RL | T | | | KY (Bunning) | R | T | T | T | T | DL | RL | T | | | NH (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | | | OH (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | | | NC (Burr) | R | RL | RL | T | R | T | RL | RL | | | LA (Vitter) | R | T | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | R | | | AZ (McCain) | R | R | R | R | R | R | RL | R | | | KS (Open) | R | R | R | R | R | R | RL | R | | | SC (DeMint) | R | R | R | RL | R | R | R | R | | | AK (Murkowski) | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | | | AL (Shelby) | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | | | GA (Isakson) | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | | | IA (Grassley) | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | | | ID (Crapo) | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | | | OK (Coburn) | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | | | SD (Thune) | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | | | UT (Bennett) | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
